货币政策不确定性、债务期限结构与企业现金持有  

Monetary Policy Uncertainty,Debt Maturity Structure and Corporate Cash Holdings

作　　者：李小林[1] 夏昌盛 司登奎 Li Xiaolin;Xia Changsheng;Si Dengkui(School of Economics, Ocean University of China;Research Institute for Caitong Securities;School of Economics, Qingdao University)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,266100 [2]财通证券研究所,100045 [3]青岛大学经济学院,266075

出　　处：《经济评论》2022年第6期114-131,共18页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘稳增长’和‘防风险’双目标下财政政策与货币政策跨周期协调机制研究”(项目编号:22BJL018)的资助。

摘　　要：本文利用2003—2020年我国非金融上市公司的年度财务数据,实证检验了货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有水平的影响。研究表明,货币政策不确定性上升会促使企业增加现金持有,而缩短的债务期限通过降低货币政策不确定性较高环境下企业的经营风险和代理成本,从而对企业高额现金持有的非效率行为产生治理效应。而且,这一治理效应在短期借款占比较低的企业中尤为明显,而当企业短期借款占比过高,即债务期限过短时,短期借款的潜在风险效应显现,治理效应则并不显著。此外,货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有的影响存在非对称性,当货币政策不确定性处于较高水平时,其对企业现金持有水平的影响更为凸显。本文证实了短期借款可纠正货币政策不确定性环境下微观企业的非效率财务决策,对提高市场资金配置效率具有一定启示。Based on the annually financial data of non-financial listed firms from 2003 to 2020 in China,this paper empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings.The results show that the rise of monetary policy uncertainty will enhance the upward adjustment trend of corporate cash holdings,and shorter debt maturity can govern the inefficient behavior of high-amount cash holding of firms by reducing their operating risks and agency costs under the context of high monetary policy uncertainty.Further analysis suggests that such governance effect is prominent in firms with lower proportion of short-term loans.When the proportion of short-term loans is too high,i.e.,the debt maturity is too short,the potential risk effect of short-term loans emerges,while the governance effect turns to be insignificant.In addition,the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings is significantly asymmetric.When the monetary policy uncertainty stays at a high level,the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings is particularly manifest.This paper confirms that debt maturity structure can correct the deviation of financial decision-making of firms caused by monetary policy uncertainty.We provide certain enlightenment for improving the efficiency of market capital allocation.

关 键 词：货币政策不确定性 现金持有 债务期限结构 治理效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]