中国进口天然气价格安全评价  

Evaluation on the price safety of China’s imported natural gas

作　　者：李宏勋[1] 王月[1] 梁云龙 LI Hong-xun;WANG Yue;LIANG Yun-long(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao,Shandong 266580)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《价格月刊》2023年第2期30-38,共9页

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“我国天然气进口安全战略研究”(编号:20BJY078);山东省社科规划数字山东研究专项2020年度课题“数据驱动的山东省石化产业绿色智能制造模式研究”(编号:20CSDJ69)。

摘　　要：选取出口方、进口方和交易市场3个层面共15项指标,构建了中国进口天然气价格安全评价指标体系,并利用主成分分析和K-means聚类分析建立价格安全评估模型,对中国进口天然气价格安全状况进行分析。结果表明:主要气源国数量、对外依存度、天然气自给率、天然气消费强度、天然气消费占比5项指标对中国进口天然气价格安全影响显著;2006—2021年中国进口天然气价格安全经历了3种状态:高度安全时期(2006—2009年)、安全性减弱时期(2010—2015年)、较不安全时期(2016—2021年)。为保障进口天然气价格安全,中国天然气企业应该采取集体采购合作定价,探索新型定价机制;创新开采技术提高天然气供给能力,正确引导天然气消费;控制对外依存度增速,积极推进友好贸易合作,优化天然气进口来源结构。This paper selects 15 indicators at three levels,namely,the exporter,the importer and the trading market,to establish an evaluation index system for the price safety of China’s imported natural gas,and uses principal component analysis and K-means cluster analysis to establish a price safety evaluation model to analyze the price safety of China’s imported natural gas.The results show that the number of major gas source countries,the degree of dependence on foreign countries,the self-sufficiency rate of natural gas,the intensity of natural gas consumption,and the proportion of natural gas consumption have a significant impact on the price safety of China’s imported natural gas;from 2006 to 2021,the price safety of China’s imported natural gas has experienced three periods:high safety period(2006-2009),weakened safety period(2010-2015),and less safety period(2016-2021).In order to ensure the price safety of imported natural gas,Chinese natural gas enterprises should adopt collective purchase cooperative pricing to explore new pricing mechanisms,innovate mining technology to improve the supply capacity of natural gas,so as to correctly guide natural gas consumption,control the growth rate of dependence on foreign countries,actively promote friendly trade cooperation to optimize the source structure of natural gas imports.

关 键 词：进口天然气 价格安全 主成分分析 K-means聚类分析 

分 类 号：F714[经济管理—产业经济]