“自主”与“依附”:影响澳大利亚对台政策的主要因素探析  

“Independence” and “Dependence”——An Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Australia’s Policy Towards Taiwan region

作　　者：蒋沁志 林冈 吴维旭[5] Jiang Qinzhi;Lin Gang;Wu Weixu

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院台湾研究中心 [2]澳大利亚国立大学 [3]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院 [4]上海交通大学台湾研究中心 [5]清华大学公共管理学院、台湾研究院

出　　处：《台湾研究》2022年第6期89-99,共11页Taiwan Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“台湾世代政治态度变动及其对两岸关系综合效应的实证研究”(项目号:17BZZ076);国家社科基金重大项目“‘一国两制’台湾方案研究”(项目号:19@ZH042);清华大学自主科研领军人才支持专项“台湾地区行政-立法的体制运作及其对两岸关系的影响研究”(项目号:2019THZWLJ06)。

摘　　要：自冷战结束后,澳大利亚从现实主义出发建构起一套完整的对台政策框架。随着澳大利亚对华经济依赖的逐步加深,澳方在对台交往上基本维持了“一个中国”的政策框架,但在美国因素影响下,又间断性地出现脱轨现象。2017年后,特朗普行政当局对华采取全面对抗策略,美方介入台海事务的频率与力度空前提升,华盛顿拉拢盟友介入台海事务的意愿亦愈发强烈。同时,中国的崛起亦导致澳大利亚对华疑惧不断加深,从而强化澳美结盟意愿。长远来看,澳大利亚可能更加积极地配合美国介入台海事务,采取新的政策动作,从而影响中澳经贸关系的正常发展。Since the end of the Cold War, Australia has developed a complete framework of policies towards Taiwan region based on realism. With the gradual deepening of economic dependence on China, Australia has largely maintained a “One China” policy framework in its exchanges with Taiwan region with occasional derailments under the influence of American factors. Since 2017, the U.S. has increased its interference in the Taiwan region Question dramatically, and the willingness of Washington to draw allies to interfere has become increasingly stronger as the Trump administration adopted an all-out confrontation strategy against China. The rise of China has also led to Australia’s growing suspicion and fear of China, thereby strengthening its willingness to form an alliance with the U.S. In the long term, Australia may take new policy actions in coordination with the U.S.’s interference in the Taiwan Question, with the price of damaging Sino-Australian economic and trade relations.

关 键 词：中澳关系 对台政策 澳美同盟 中美博弈 

分 类 号：D822.61[政治法律—政治学]