印度从辛格政府到莫迪政府的军购行为变化及其原因探析  

Reasons for Changes in Indian Arms Procurement:From Singh Government to Modi Government

作　　者：郑华[1] 任姗姗 张頔赟 Zheng Hua;Ren Shanshan;Zhang Diyun

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院国际关系系 [2]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2022年第4期27-46,155,共21页South Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大专项(项目批准号:21VGQ003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：军购是关乎主权国家军力发展和国家安全的重要议题,直接影响国防安全和国家间关系的亲疏远近。作为南亚强国,印度始终将海外军购作为提升自身军事实力及实现政治大国梦想的重要路径。从2004年辛格主政到2019年莫迪第一任期结束的十五年间,印度在经济实力上升、安全威胁增加、领导人实现政治大国意愿更为强烈的背景下,海外军购却呈明显下降趋势。本文分析十五年来印度国防战略、国内政治和国际环境三个维度的变化发现,印度军工产业的发展理念、军购数量及内容和来源国、执政党理念和领导人执政风格等是造成莫迪政府减少海外军购的主要原因。这些因素综合构建了印度国防自主化发展的态势、官僚机构的腐败和军工复合体集团的利益纠结。此间,国际形势经历了以“金砖国家”为代表的新兴经济体群体性崛起以及从奥巴马“亚太再平衡”战略到特朗普“印太战略”的变化。伴随中美战略竞争加剧,莫迪政府拓展印度政治影响力的初衷与美国政府试图借助印度制衡中国崛起的图谋相呼应,印度将军购作为其重要外交工具选择的趋势日益明显。As an important issue related to the military development and national security,arms procurement(AP)directly affects national defense security and international relations.As a powerful country in South Asia,India has always considered AP as one of the important approaches to enhance its military power and realize its dream of political power.During the fifteen years from 2004 to 2019,India’s AP has shown a significant downward trend against the rising economic power,increasing security threats,and stronger willingness of leaders to achieve political greatness.This paper analyzes the reasons for this change from three dimensions as India’s defense strategy,domestic politics,and international environment over the past fifteen years and finds that such factors as the localization philosophy of India’s military industry,the quantity and content of arms from source countries,the philosophy of the ruling party,and the administrative style of the leaders have attributed to the development of India’s national defense autonomy,the corruption of bureaucratic institutions and the entanglement of military industrial complex.This 15-years period has also experienced the rise of the BRICS,as well as the transition from Obama’s Asia Pacific Re-balancing strategy to Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.Along with the intensification of strategic competition between China and the United States,the Modi government’s initial intention to expand India’s political influence is consistent with the U.S’attempt to use India as a counterweight to balance China’s rise.Against this background,India’s determination to use AP as a diplomatic tool is increasingly clear.

关 键 词：印度 军购 辛格政府 莫迪政府 中美战略竞争 

分 类 号：D735.1[政治法律—政治学] E351[政治法律—中外政治制度]