美联储“三重紧缩”及其政策溢出效应  

Fed’s“triple tightening”and its policy spillover effects

作　　者：谷源洋[1,2] Gu Yuanyang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院荣誉学部 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《全球化》2023年第1期10-18,133,共10页Globalization

摘　　要：在通胀螺旋冲击下,美联储启动加息周期。激进升息加速美国经济“硬着陆”风险,最终将把美国拖入经济衰退的深渊。美联储持续加息扰动全球,带动美元指数攀升,改变世界资金流向,非美元主要货币大幅贬值,资本从多国流出,加重债务危机风险,造成国际金融市场动荡不安和世界经济失序混乱。美国经济是当下世界经济的“缩影”,大多数国家通胀和经济前景迷雾重重,面临比美国更加严重的滞胀与衰退威胁。我们需要密切关注美联储货币政策调整对美国经济产生的多重影响,以及给新兴市场金融体系造成的系列风险。更要特别警惕美联储货币政策急速变化对中国的溢出效应,未雨绸缪,全面做好缓冲的思想和行动准备,严防发生系统性金融风险,保障国家能源和粮食安全,应对可能出现的全球金融危机和世界经济衰退。Under the impact of the inflation spiral,the Fed starts the interest rate hike cycle.Aggressive rate hikes accelerate the risk of a“hard landing”for the U.S.economy,which will eventually drag the U.S.into the abyss of economic recession.The Fed’s continued interest rate hikes have disturbed the world,driven the U.S.dollar index to rise,changed the flow of world funds,major non-dollar currencies depreciated sharply,and capital flowed out from many countries,aggravating the risk of debt crisis,causing turmoil in the international financial market and disorder in the world economy.The U.S.economy is the“microcosm”of the current world economy.Inflation and economic prospects in most countries are uncertain,and they face more serious threats of stagflation and recession than the US.It need to pay close attention to the multiple impacts of the Fed’s monetary policy adjustments on the US economy and the series of risks it poses to the financial systems of emerging markets.It must be particularly vigilant against the spillover effects of the rapid changes in the Fed’s monetary policy on China,take precautions,and prepare for buffering thoughts and actions in an all-round way,strictly prevent financial systemic risks,ensure national energy and food security,and respond to possible global financial crises and world economic recessions.

关 键 词：通胀螺旋 三重紧缩 溢出效应 经济衰退 金融混乱 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济] F827.12