山东省干旱灾害风险评估与区划研究  

Study on risk assessment and zoning of drought disasters in Shandong Province

作　　者：李臻[1] 季民[1] 李云岭[1] 王映然 LI Zhen;JI Min;LI Yunling;WANG Yingran(College of Geodesy and Geomatics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学测绘与空间信息学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第1期80-87,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：山东省重大科技创新工程项目(2019JZZY020103)。

摘　　要：为了提高山东省干旱灾害的风险评估和应急管理能力,减少旱灾损失,根据自然灾害风险理论,考虑干旱灾害的影响因素,从危险性、敏感性、易损性、防灾减灾能力4个方面选取评价指标,采用AHP-熵权法确定指标权重,构建干旱灾害风险指数模型,并绘制出山东省干旱灾害风险区划图。风险区划结果表明:致灾因子的高危险区位于鲁西北地区,孕灾环境敏感性高值区主要位于中部及东部地区,承灾体易损性从阳信县、汶上县、陵城区、曹县、嘉祥县、宁阳县依次递减,防灾减灾能力从高到低依次为福山区、龙口市、荣成市、黄岛区、垦利区;从干旱风险区划图中可以看出,干旱综合风险大体呈现出由东向西逐渐递增的现象。In order to improve the risk assessment and emergency management capacity of drought disasters in Shandong Province and reduce drought losses,according to the natural disaster risk theory and considering the influencing factors of drought disaster,this paper selects evaluation indicators from four aspects of hazard,sensitivity,vulnerability,prevention and mitigation capacity.And we use the AHP-entropy weight method to determine the indicator weights,construct a drought disaster risk index model,and draw a drought disaster risk zoning map of Shandong Province.The results of the risk zoning indicate that the high-risk areas for disaster-causing factors are located in the northwest of Shandong Province.The areas with high value of the sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment are mainly located in the central and eastern regions.The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies decreases from Yangxin County,Wenshang County,Lingcheng District,Caoxian County,Jiaxiang County and Ningyang County in a descending order.The disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is from high to low as Fushan District,Longkou City,Rongcheng City,Huangdao District and Kenli District.From the drought risk zoning map,it can be seen that the comprehensive risk of drought generally shows a gradual increase from east to west.

关 键 词：干旱灾害 风险评估 风险区划 AHP-熵权法 山东省 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]