穿越管道滑坡地表位移预警阈值及预警模型研究  

Prediction threshold of surface displacement and prediction model of pipeline crossing landslide

作　　者：葛华 方迎潮 朱建平 李虎 王庆 时建辰 GE Hua;FANG Yingchao;ZHU Jianping;LI Hu;WANG Qing;SHI Jianchen(PipeChina Southwest Pipeline Company,Chengdu 610041,China;Sichuan Institute of Geological Engineering Investigation Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司,四川成都610041 [2]四川省地质工程勘察院集团有限公司,四川成都610072

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第1期126-132,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司科技研发项目(2020B-3106-0501)。

摘　　要：为了解决管道穿越滑坡区地表位移预警阈值难以确定的问题,运用弹性地基梁模型和滑坡位移控制方法推导了滑坡区管道位移和应力力学模型,获取了管道能承受的最大位移;通过管道最大位移和地表位移的耦合关系,定量化确定了滑坡地表位移预警阈值计算方法;结合地下水预警阈值与管道应力阈值,构建了管道滑坡多因素耦合预警模型;并将其运用到贵州K0937+050管道滑坡灾害。结果表明:K0937+050滑坡灾害地表位移蓝、黄、红色预警阈值分别为15.00,232.74,508.32 mm,地下水各级阈值为0.63,1.73,2.28 m。现场监测数据显示,地表位移达到29.978 mm,触发蓝色预警,地下水位高度为1.80~2.10 m,达到黄色预警,综合预警级别达到关注级。根据地表位移动态预警、地下水预警与管道应力预警构建的管道滑坡灾害动态耦合预警模型,能在一定程度上为管道滑坡灾害提供合理的预警,保障管道安全运行,提高预警成功率。In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to determine the early warning threshold of surface displacement of pipeline crossing landslide area,based on themodel of beam on elastic foundation and the landslide displacement control method,a mechanical model of pipeline displacement and stress in landslide area was derived,and the maximum displacement that pipeline can bear was obtained.Using the coupling relationship between the maximum displacement of the pipeline and the landslide surface displacement,the calculation method of the landslide surface displacement warning threshold was determined quantitatively.Combined with the groundwater warning threshold and the pipeline stress threshold,a multi-factor coupling warning model for pipeline landslides was constructed.The new model was applied to the K0937+050 pipeline landslide disaster in Guizhou Province.The results showed that the blue,yellow and red warning thresholds of the surface displacement of K0937+050 landslide disaster were 15.00,232.74mm and 508.32mm,respectively,the groundwater thresholds were 0.63,1.73m and 2.28m.Monitoring data showed that when the surface displacement reached 29.978mm,the blue warning level was triggered,and the groundwater level was1.80~2.10 m reaching the yellow warning level,the comprehensive warning level reached a concern level.The proposed model that couples surface displacement warning,groundwater warning and pipeline stress warning,can provide reasonable early warning for pipeline landslide disaster to a certain extent,ensure the safe operation of pipeline and improve the success rate of early warning.

关 键 词：地表位移 预警阈值 预警模型 力学模型 滑坡 管道 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]