美元霸权下的人民币国际化道路:债券市场渠道的分析  

RMB Internationalization under US Dollar Hegemony:An Analysis of Bond Market Channels

作　　者：范小云 王伟[2] Fan Xiaoyun;Wang Wei

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,300071 [2]中山大学岭南学院,510275

出　　处：《国外社会科学》2022年第6期46-58,196,共14页Social Sciences Abroad

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于结构性数据分析的我国系统性金融风险防范体系研究”(17ZDA074);广东省自然科学基金面上项目“人民币国际化与国内金融改革的协调发展研究”(2021A1515011698)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：一、美元霸权是美国的核心利益第二次世界大战以后,美元与黄金挂钩、其他国家货币与美元挂钩的“双挂钩,一固定”布雷顿森林体系正式确立了美元在国际货币体系中的核心位置。虽然“特里芬难题”导致布雷顿森林体系解体,但是与黄金松绑后,美元反而凭借强大的惯性优势以及绑定石油等大宗商品交易,成为牙买加体系下唯一的主导国际货币.This paper attempts to explore the feasibility of a bond channel for RMB internationalization under the hegemony of the US dollar.Under the current international monetary system,the United States can not only obtain excessive investment returns,but also seriously interferes with the normal financial order of other countries through“beggar-thy-neighbor”monetary policies and abusive financial sanctions.Although the hegemonic position of the US dollar remains stable,due to the high geopolitical risks and the decline of its international reputation,its hegemonic position has shown signs of loosening in the international bond market,as evidenced by the decline in the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves and the selling of US treasury bonds by a large number of countries.Against this backdrop,the paper takes into account China’s current account surplus and the current situation of orderly financial opening,and suggests that market-driven RMB internationalization should focus particularly on the development of international bond markets.Finally,the paper points out that RMB internationalization under the bond channel can start along the following paths:first,continue to expand the influence of RMB bonds in ASEAN countries;second,try to internationalize bonds through China’s Central Bank digital currency;and third,open up the onshore foreign exchange market to provide foreign bond investors with exchange rate risk hedging tools.

关 键 词：布雷顿森林体系 人民币国际化 国际货币体系 美元霸权 债券市场 特里芬难题 牙买加体系 核心利益 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]