地区大国代理人战略的差异性研究——以中东宗教政治组织的赞助——代理关系为例  

On the Different Effects of Regional Power’s Proxy Strategy——Taking Examples for Sponsor-proxy relations between Iran and Shiite Organizations in the Middle East

作　　者：刘中民[1] Liu Zhongmin

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学中东研究所,上海200083

出　　处：《国际观察》2022年第5期48-86,共39页International Review

摘　　要：代理人战略是冷战时期美苏等大国干涉地区事务的主要方式。冷战结束后,中等强国和地区性大国也时有采取代理人战略的情形,内涵与形式各有不同。对于伊朗与中东国家的什叶派政治组织形成的程度不等的合作关系,并被西方和部分中东国家学界解释为输出革命论、教派主义论和代理人论,存在过于简单化的问题。本文以赞助—代理关系理论为视角,以黎巴嫩、伊拉克、也门、海湾阿拉伯国家的什叶派政治组织为主要分析对象,对伊朗与中东什叶派政治组织的关系进行比较研究。经研究发现,伊朗与黎巴嫩真主党的关系是具有战略伙伴性质的委托—代理关系;伊朗与伊拉克什叶派政治组织的关系是松散的赞助—代理关系;伊朗与也门胡塞武装的关系是处于建构过程中的赞助—代理关系,尚存在不确定性;伊朗与海湾阿拉伯国家什叶派政治组织的关系是失败的赞助—代理关系。通过比较研究,论文得出了三点结论:第一,关于伊朗与代理人建立赞助—代理关系的条件。存在边缘化的什叶派及其反政府的什叶派政治组织、政局动荡、存在较强的外部压力是成功建立赞助—代理关系的充分条件,什叶派政治组织所在国家政权脆弱是成功建立赞助—代理关系必要条件。第二,关于赞助—代理关系的过程和类型。伊朗与中东什叶派政治组织赞助—代理关系的建立需要一个复杂的过程,其类型可划分较为紧密的关系和较为松散的关系。第三,关于意识形态和国家利益的关系。伊朗与中东什叶派政治组织建立赞助—代理关系深受其伊斯兰革命意识形态的影响,同时也深受其国家利益诉求的深刻影响,而国家利益的重要性远在意识形态之上。Iran has established cooperation in different degree with Shiite political organizations in the Middle East, and is called the “Shia crescent ” by the West and some Middle Eastern countries. For this phenomenon, the academic explanation mainly includes “exporting revolution” theory, sectarianism theory and proxy theory, but there are all problems of oversimplification. Only by comparing the environmental conditions, cooperation level and achievement effectiveness of the relations between Iran and Shiite political organizations in the Middle East can its commonalities and differences be relatively accurately understood. Therefore,this paper conducts comparative studies on the relations between Iran and Shiite political organizations in the Middle East countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gulf Arab states. It is found that the relations between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon is a strategic partnership of the sponsor-proxy relations, the relations between Iran and Iraq’s Shiite political organization is a loose sponsor-proxy relations, the relations between Iran the Houthis in Yemen is in the process of sponsor-proxy relations construction, and the relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab Shiite political organization is a failed sponsor-proxy relations. Through comparative studies, the paper draws three conclusions: First, the conditions for Iran to establish sponsor-proxy relations with agents. The marginalized Shia and anti-government Shiite political organizations, political turmoil and strong external pressure are sufficient conditions for the successful sponsor-proxy relations, and the fragility of the state is a necessary condition for the successful establishment of the sponsor-proxy relations. Second, the process and type of sponsor-proxy relations.The establishment of a sponsor-proxy relations between Iran and Shiite political organizations in the Middle East is a complex process, which can be divided into closer relations and more loose relations. Third, about the relations between ideology

关 键 词：伊朗 什叶派政治组织 赞助—代理关系 意识形态 国家利益 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]