中国城镇化改革红利:一个量化空间分析  

The Reform Dividend of China’s Urbanization: A Quantitative Spatial Analysis

作　　者：苏红键[1] SU Hongjian

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2022年第11期102-121,共20页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“城乡福祉、空间均衡与城镇化方略”(编号:20FJLB019)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于一个包含制度约束的空间均衡模型,本文对中国城镇化改革红利进行量化分析,利用中国城市古城面积作为城市规模的工具变量,结合中国家庭收入调查数据和城市统计数据估计发现,中国城市集聚经济的规模弹性约0.17,集聚成本的规模弹性约0.33;以流动人口落户意愿作为制度约束的替代指标,设计三类反事实分析均发现,降低制度约束水平能够明显提高城市人口规模和城乡效率,从而提高总体收入和福祉水平。其中,消除制度约束并设置最大城市规模为3000万人时,城区总人口增长10.01%,城区人均收入提高3.21%,农村总人口相应减少7.57%,农村人均收入提高2.79%。为实现城镇化改革红利,应科学落实人地挂钩、提高城市治理水平、促进都市圈同城化,协同推进体制机制改革,充分发挥集聚经济、降低集聚成本。This article makes a quantitative analysis on the reform dividend of China’s urbanization using a spatial equilibrium model with institutional constraints. Using the data of the area of ancient cities in China as a tool variable, and the survey data of household income and urban statistics, the study finds that the scale elasticity of China’s urban agglomeration economy is about0.17, and the scale elasticity of agglomeration cost is about 0.33. Taking the willingness of the floating population to settle down with hukou as a substitute indicator of institutional constraints, by designing three counterfactual analyses, the study finds that reducing the level of institutional constraints can significantly improve the urban population size and urban-rural efficiency, thereby improving the overall income and well-being level. Among them, when institutional constraints are removed and the maximum urban size is set at 30 million people, the urban population will increase by 10.01%, the per capital income in urban areas will increase by 3.21%, the rural population will decrease by 7.57%, and the per capital income in rural areas will increase by 2.79%. In order to realize reform dividend of urbanization, it is necessary to give full play to agglomeration economy and reduce agglomeration cost, through scientifically implementing the link between people and land, improving urban governance capacity,promoting theintegration of metropolitan areas and coordinating thereform ofsystems and mechanisms.

关 键 词：城镇化 改革红利 集聚经济 空间均衡 量化空间分析 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]