养老保险全国统筹、地方政府保费征缴行为与财政责任  

NATIONAL OVERALL PLANNING OF BASIC PENSION INSURANCE,LOCAL GOVERNMENT PREMIUM COLLECTION BEHAVIOR AND FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

作　　者：曾益[1] 姚金 ZENG Yi;YAO Jin(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,430073

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2022年第12期48-59,共12页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社科基金(21AZD070)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于地方政府保费征缴行为变化的视角,构建计量和精算模型,通过分析基本养老保险全国统筹的财政效应发现:第一,如果实施中央调剂制度,2021—2050年累计财政责任为1 104.56万亿元;第二,如果实现全国统筹,征缴率会下降15.6%,累计财政责任较实施中央调剂制度时提高23.67%;第三,假定国家出台激励机制来规范地方政府保费征缴行为,征缴率提高3.39%,累计财政责任较实施全国统筹政策时下降5.14%;第四,若进一步引入渐进式延迟退休年龄政策,累计财政责任较出台激励机制时下降17.18%~23.82%。可见,在推进基本养老保险全国统筹的过程中,国家应出台奖惩激励机制,并尽快制定延迟退休年龄方案。Based on the perspective of the change of local government premium collection and payment behavior, this paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of national overall planning of basic pension insurance on financial responsibility by using econometric model and actuarial model, and finds that: First, when the central adjustment system is still implemented, the cumulative financial responsibility from 2021 to 2050 will be 1 104.56 trillion yuan.Second, if the national overall planning is realized, the collection and payment rate of pension insurance will drop by 15.6%,and the cumulative financial responsibility will increase by 23.67% compared with the implementation of the central adjustment system.Third, assuming that the state has issued a reward and punishment mechanism to regulate the premium collection and payment behavior of local governments, the collection and payment rate can be increased by 3.39%,and the cumulative financial responsibility will be reduced by 5.14% compared with the implementation of the national overall planning policy only.Fourth, if the policy of gradually delaying the retirement age is further introduced, the cumulative financial responsibility can be reduced by 17.18%~23.82% compared with the introduction of reward and punishment mechanism.It can be seen that in the process of advancing the national overall planning of pension insurance, the state should introduce the incentive mechanism for the collection and payment of local government premiums, and formulate a plan to delay the retirement age as soon as possible, so as to realize the sustainable development of the fund.

关 键 词：全国统筹 养老保险 财政责任 征缴行为 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F812