离网型光伏制氢项目经济性分析及压力测试  

Economic Analysis and Stress Test of Off-grid Photovoltaic Hydrogen Production Projects

作　　者：许传博 张文座 李忻颖 吕晓燕 XU Chuanbo;ZHANG Wenzuo;LI Xinying;LV Xiaoyan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Changping District,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]华北电力大学新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室,北京市昌平区102206 [3]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京市昌平区102249

出　　处：《现代电力》2023年第1期1-7,共7页Modern Electric Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0102400);中国博士后科学基金项目(2020M680488)。

摘　　要：为解决可再生能源制氢项目缺少综合性评价指标、缺少对成本的精准计算等问题,首先对离网型光伏制氢项目成本进行了系统分析,讨论了规模效应、技术进步率对离网型光伏制氢项目成本的影响,分析了总成本构成明细,然后对发电设备购入费、电解效率、技术进步率3个因素进行压力测试。分析结果表明:在2020年发电厂规模100 MW情况下,平准化单位制氢成本(levelized cost of hydrogen, LCOH)为44.96元/kg,其中成本占比最高的是发电厂固定成本,达到30.39%。压力测试结果表明:技术进步率对LCOH的影响最为显著,在基准情景下,假设发电厂技术进步率取10%、电解厂取20%时,LCOH在2050年可降至5.76元/kg,低于煤气化制氢的9.5元/kg,证明离网型光伏制氢项目具有竞争力。To solve the problems in renewable energy hydrogen production project as lacking of comprehensive evaluation indicators, accurate cost calculation and so on, firstly, the systemical analysis on the cost of off-grid photovoltaic(abbr. PV)hydrogen production project(abbr. PHPP) was conducted, and the impacts of scale effects and the rates of technological progress on the costs of PHPP were discussed, and the total cost composition was analyzed in detail. Secondly, the stress test for three factors, i.e., the purchase cost of power generation assembly, the electrolytic efficiency and the rate of technological progress, was performed. Analysis result show that under the circumistance of power plant scale of 100 MW in 2020 the levelized cost of hydrogen(abbr. LOCH) was 44.96 CNY/kg, in which the fixed cost of the power plant was of the highest proportion, i.e., 30.39%. Result of the stress test shows that the rate of technical progress exerts a significant influence on LCOH,and under the benchmark scenario, assuming that the rate of technical progress of power plant is 10% and that of the electrolysis plant is 20%, so the LCOH can be reduced to 5.76 CNY/kg in 2050, i.e., lower than 9.5 CNY/kg of hydrogen production from coal gasification, thus, it is proved that the off-grid photovoltaic hydrogen production is competitive.

关 键 词：光伏制氢 平准化单位制氢成本 压力测试 规模效应 技术进步率 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]