城市群扩容能否降低工业废水污染?——以长三角为例  

A CASE STUDY ON YANGTZE RIVE DELTA: CAN ENLARGED CITY CLUSTER DECREASE INDUSTRIAL WASTEWATER POLLUTION?

作　　者：朱智洺[1] 李亚洁 符磊[1] ZHU Zhiming;LI Yajie;FU Lei(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《资源与产业》2022年第5期81-89,共9页Resources & Industries

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(20BJL063)。

摘　　要：“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念正不断深入人心,生态优先、绿色发展成为城市共同发展路径。然而当前,长三角城市群产业发展惯性大,污染物排放基数大,尤其是工业废水污染,大大降低人民群众的幸福感。城市群代替中心城市逐渐成为促进城市发展的增长极,其地域扩容对工业废水污染的影响如何,是一个值得分析的问题。运用2003—2019年中国246个地级市数据,采用合成控制法,通过对比长三角城市群工业废水排放实际值与合成值的差值,研究城市群扩容能否降低工业废水排放;同时使用安慰剂法以及变换处理组对其稳健性进行检验;最后就扩容如何影响工业废水排放进行讨论并提出建议。研究发现,就整个城市群来说,扩容政策显著地降低了城市群工业废水排放。没有发生扩容的合成工业废水排放发生了增长,而实际工业废水排放却是下降的,可见扩容政策的实施是必要的。就影响机制而言,扩容通过人口密度增加了工业废水排放,通过促进经济增长降低了工业废水排放。Concept of “Clear waters and green mountains are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver” prevails with ecological priority and green development becoming a mutual developing path for cities. Yangtze River Delta city cluster is growing its industries with increasing pollution emission, especially the industrial wastewater pollution, thus largely decreasing residents’ euphoria. City cluster is becoming the growing center in replacement of central city. If other expansion of regions has impacts on industrial wastewater pollution remains a question. This paper, based on 246 prefectures’ data from 2003 to 2019 in China, uses synthetic control to study the impacts of enlarged city cluster on decreasing industrial wastewater pollution through the difference between the actual industrial wastewater emission and synthetic emission in Yangtze River Delta city cluster. Placebo and transformation is used to test its stability. Suggestions are given on how enlarged city cluster impact industrial wastewater emission. Enlargement policy largely decreases industrial wastewater emission in city cluster. Synthetic industrial wastewater emission without enlargement grows, but the actual industrial wastewater emission declines, which makes enlargement policy a necessity. Enlarged city cluster increases industrial wastewater emission through population density, but decreases it through economic growth.

关 键 词：城市群扩容 工业废水污染 长三角 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]