考虑建筑地震倒塌影响的道路交通系统风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Road Traffic System Considering the Impact of Building Earthquake Collapse

作　　者：杨相杰 张明媛[1] 张娟[1] 李钢 YANG Xiang-jie;ZHANG Ming-yuan;ZHANG Juan;LI Gang(Department of Construction Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设管理系,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程》2022年第6期93-102,共10页Systems Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(DUT20ZD401);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52038002)。

摘　　要：道路交通系统作为抗震救灾的生命线,对其进行地震风险分析,确定路段重要度对降低地震脆弱性、提高可靠性具有重要指导意义。针对以往研究中缺乏对建筑地震倒塌和用户出行行为的考虑等问题,首先量化了建筑地震倒塌产生的瓦砾堆积对路段通行能力的影响,采用概率随机分配模型实现交通流量的分配,进而提出了评价道路交通系统性能的指标,平均旅行速度。其次,根据道路交通系统性能、地震可靠性、脆弱性三者之间的关系,在考虑用户适应能力的情况下,定义了系统的脆弱性,采用Monte Carlo模拟法实现了随机地震破坏场景下系统可靠性和路段重要度的计算。最后以某社区道路交通系统为例,实施了提出的方法,算例结果显示该系统的脆弱性为20.63km/h;当震后可接受的旅行速度为20km/h时,系统的可靠性为0.87;还给出了在随机地震破坏场景下的路段重要度排序。提出的方法可以为提高路段通行能力、改善建筑和道路的空间位置关系提供有效的决策依据。The road traffic system serves as the lifeline for earthquake relief. Carrying out seismic risk analysis on road traffic systems and determining the importance of road sections have important guiding significance for reducing seismic vulnerability and improving reliability. In response to the lack of consideration of the impact of building earthquake collapse and user choice behavior in previous studies, the impact of debris piling caused by building earthquake collapse on road section capacity was first quantified. Moreover, the probability random assignment model was used to allocate traffic flow. And then, the metric to evaluate the performance of the road traffic system, the average travel speed was proposed. Secondly, the vulnerability of the system was defined taking into account the adaptability of users. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to calculate the system reliability and the importance of road sections under random earthquake scenarios. Finally, the proposed method was implemented by taking a community road traffic system as an example. The example results show that the vulnerability of the system is 20.63 km/h, and the reliability of the system is 0.87 when the acceptable travel speed after the earthquake is 20 km/h. In addition, the order of importance of road sections in random earthquake scenarios was given. The proposed method can provide an effective decision-making basis for improving the traffic capacity of road sections and improving the spatial position relationship between buildings and roads.

关 键 词：道路交通系统 瓦砾堆积 风险评估 路段重要度 地震 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]