基于PECM模型的长江流域经济社会发展与水资源利用动态关系分析  

Dynamic relationship between economic&social development and water resources utilization in the Yangtze River Basin based on PECM model

作　　者：万蕾 张兴奇[1] 郭新亚[1] WAN Lei;ZHANG Xingqi;GUO Xinya(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《水利经济》2023年第1期10-16,30,103,共9页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

摘　　要：为评估长江流域经济社会综合发展水平和水资源综合利用水平以及两者间的内在关系,采用熵值法、面板协整理论和误差修正模型对2000—2017年间长江流域经济社会发展和水资源利用的面板Granger因果关系进行检验。结果表明:长江流域上中下游3个区域的经济社会发展和水资源利用之间存在长期协整关系;在长期关系中,上游地区经济社会发展与水资源利用之间为双向因果关系,中游地区为经济社会发展到水资源利用的单向因果关系,下游地区为水资源利用到经济社会发展的单向因果关系,上游地区经济社会发展和水资源利用具有更高的关联度;在短期关系中,仅下游地区存在经济社会发展到水资源利用的单向因果关系。基于二者之间存在不同的因果关系,各省市在制定经济发展规划时应因地制宜地制定水资源政策,以期实现经济社会与水资源的协调发展。In order to evaluate the comprehensive economic and social development level,the comprehensive water resources utilization level in the Yangtze River Basin and their internal relationship,the entropy method,panel cointegration theory and error correction model are used to analyze the panel Granger causality between economic&social development and water resource utilization in the basin from 2000 to 2017.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between economic&social development and water resource utilization in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.In the long-term,the relationship between economic&social development and water resource utilization was bidirectional in the upstream region,while the link from economic&social development to water resource utilization in the midstream region,and the link from water resource utilization to economic&social development in the downstream region were unidirectional.The economic&social development and water resources utilization in the upstream region have a higher degree of correlation.In the short-term,only the downstream region has a unidirectional relationship from economic&social development to water resources utilization.Based on the different causal relationships between the two,provinces and cities should formulate water resources policies according to local conditions when formulating economic development plans,in order to achieve the coordinated development of economic society and water resources.

关 键 词：经济社会发展 水资源利用 熵值法 面板误差修正模型 因果检验 长江流域 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]