引入人脸抓拍系统还是升级安检设备?——有限资源下的地铁暴恐防御序贯博弈模型  

Introduce Face Recognition System or Upgrade Security Inspection Equipment?——A Sequential Game Model of Subway Violent Terrorist Defense under Limited Resources

作　　者：李德龙 刘德海 LI De-long;LIU De-hai(School of Business Administration,Inner mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,China;School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古财经大学工商管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010070 [2]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2022年第12期280-292,共13页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71874024,71571033,71571035,71503033);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金青年基金项目(2022QN07003)。

摘　　要：在有限防御资源约束下,地铁安防部门面临着引进人脸抓拍系统构建二级地铁暴恐防御体系,还是升级原安检系统构建增强型一级地铁暴恐防御系统的选择。本文基于暴恐分子决策的目标价值依赖性和安防部门的接警反应时间不对称性,构建了有限资源下地铁暴恐防御策略选择的序贯博弈模型。得出并分析了双方的四种均衡策略,最后结合北京地铁积水潭站早高峰案例,给出了考虑高峰大客流冲击效应的暴恐防御决策建议。研究发现,当增强型安检系统的准确率过高,或接警反应时间有效率较高时,引进人脸抓拍系统策略占优,且人脸抓拍系统的社会价值对安防部门决策无直接影响。当增强型安检系统的准确率适中,或接警反应时间有效率较低时,第一种情况,在安防部门侧重效率的情况下,人脸抓拍系统的社会价值与安防效率正相关,引进人脸抓拍策略在其社会价值较高时占优;第二种情况,在侧重安全情况下,升级加强原安检系统策略占优,此时,人脸抓拍系统的社会价值对安防部门决策无影响。另外,较高的安检准确率将提升安检厅的乘客淤滞水平、强化高峰大客流对安检厅的冲击效应、削弱高峰大客流对候车厅的冲击效应,并最终拉升暴恐分子直接袭击安检厅的风险。Subway security is normally faced with the trade-off between safety and efficiency.There are two typical security modes.One is to install a face capture system at the entrance of a subway station to track,interrogate or capture potential terrorists(IFR),the other is to intercept contraband through checkpoints,and that is a way of upgrading the original security inspection equipment(USE).However,there are great differences between the two strategies in terms of security resource allocation,detection object,passenger traffic speed,passenger congestion in security inspection hall and train waiting hall.From the perspective of operational profit demand,the resource of terrorist defense is usually limited,in other words,the security department is faced with an either-or situation.A sequential game model of subway terrorist defense strategy selection is constructed under the constraint of limited resources,based on the target value dependence of terrorist decision-making and the asymmetric response time of the patrolmen.Firstly,the process models of the two security modes are described;Secondly,six equilibrium scenarios of four decision-making combinations are obtained and analyzed;Thirdly,the passenger congestion model of the security inspection hall and waiting hall which can reflect the passenger traffic speed is described,and the impact effect of the peak passenger flow on the decision-making of both sides is further analyzed;Finally,some suggestions on the selection of terrorist defense strategies are given combined with a case.It is found finds that when the accuracy of the enhanced security system,or the effective efficiency of the response time of the patrolmen is higher than a certain threshold value,the IFR strategy is dominant,and the social value of the face recognition system has no direct impact on the decision-making.When the accuracy of enhanced security inspection system is moderate,or the effective efficiency of response time of the patrolmen is lower than a certain threshold value,in the first case,w

关 键 词：地铁反恐 序贯博弈 地铁安检 人脸抓拍系统 乘客淤滞 

分 类 号：C930[经济管理—管理学]