中东国家新一轮关系缓和探析  

Analysis on the New Round of Détente in the Middle East

作　　者：金良祥[1] Jin Liangxiang(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2022年第6期137-152,M0007,共17页Journal of International Relations

摘　　要：自2020年特朗普政府执政后期开始,以以色列与阿联酋等阿拉伯国家建立外交关系为重要体现,中东国家间关系开启了新一轮缓和。本轮缓和具有涉及国家数量众多、议题广泛以及意愿深切等特点。美国中东收缩战略、地区国家难以继续支撑各自恶性竞争势力范围的窘况以及各自聚焦经济增长和民生改善的国内政治,构成了中东国家间缓和的内外条件,也为缓和奠定了坚实基础。但另一方面,因受到巴勒斯坦问题、教派矛盾以及美国搅局等因素的制约,本轮缓和仍将难以实现构建地区新秩序的前景,松散但趋稳将是未来一段时间中东地区安全形势的基本特点。The new round of détente among major Middle East countries began with Israel’s normalizing diplomatic relations with UAE and a number of other Arab countries in the second half of the year 2020,when Trump’s presidency was entering the last stage. The current détente involves a large variety of countries in the region despite hostility between Israel and Iran. While addressing a wide range of issues from diplomatic relations to economic and security cooperation,countries expressed strong willingness to develop cooperative relations with each other via dialogue and negotiations.America’s retrenchment policy,exhaustive geopolitical competition at regional level and rising of economic development agenda constitute the conditions for the détente,which could be expected to be solid. However,restrictions are always there including the Palestine issue,the sectarian conflicts and America’s meddling. Considering all these factors,the current détente might not lead to the reconstruction of new regional order in short term,but will lay foundations for future efforts in this regard. And the region will be relatively stable but loosely connected.

关 键 词：中东地区秩序 中东缓和 美国中东战略 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系] D837[政治法律—政治学]