近30年色林错湖面变化特征及其对气候变化的响应  

Variation of Selin Co lake area during 1988-2020 and its response to climate change

作　　者：宋玉芝[1,2] 德吉玉珍 SONG Yuzhi;DEJI Yuzhen(Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink,China Meteorlogical Administration(ECSS-CMA),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学中国气象局生态系统碳源汇开放重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期24-33,共10页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(4207733)。

摘　　要：为了探讨气候变化对高原湖色林错湖面面积变化的影响,基于1988—2020年Landsat卫星遥感影像资料,用最大似然法提取色林错水体信息,采用线性回归及M-K检验法分析色林错湖面面积及其流域内温度、降水和积雪深度等气候因子变化特征,并用皮尔逊相关分析法探讨了湖面面积与气象因子之间的相关性.结果表明:近30年色林错湖面面积增加了650.70 km^(2),增长速率为203.34 km^(2)/(10 a).色林错湖面扩张存在着明显的空间差异,湖面向南、向北扩展比较明显;色林错流域年平均气温及降水量呈显著上升趋势(p<0.05),而积雪深度呈显著下降的趋势(p<0.05),其中增温速率为0.50℃/(10 a),降水量增加速率为17.32 mm/(10 a),积雪深度递减率为0.65 cm/(10 a);色林错湖面面积的变化与该流域气温的升高以及冷季积雪深度的降低具有极显著相关性(p<0.001),气温升高使得色林错上游的冰雪融水增加是色林错湖面面积增大的主要原因.To explore the impact of climate change on the lake area of Selin Co, this paper used maximum likelihood method to extract the lake areas of Selin Co for the past 33 years(1988-2020) from Landsat data, then analyzed the variations in lake area, temperature, precipitation as well as snow cover depth in Selin Co basin using linear regression and Mann-Kendall test, and discussed the correlation between lake area and climate change by Pearson correlation.The results showed that, in the past 33 years, the Selin Co Lake expanded by 650.70 km^(2) at the rate of 203.34 km^(2)/(10 a),mostly at northward and southward directions.The average annual temperature and precipitation increased significantly at the rates of 0.50 ℃/(10 a) and 17.32 mm/(10 a)(p<0.05),while the average maximum snow cover depth decreased significantly at the rate of 0.65 cm/(10 a)(p<0.05) during 1988-2020.An extremely significant correlation was found between the change of lake area and the rise of air temperature in the basin as well as the decreasing maximum snow cover depth in cold season(p<0.001),indicating that the Selin Co lake’s expansion in the past 33 years was a consequence of the increasing water supply from ice-snow meltwater due to the rising air temperature in Selin Co basin.

关 键 词：气候变化 湖面变化 遥感 色林错 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感] P343.3[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]