长三角城市群核心地区碳平衡压力与新型城镇化脱钩关系  

Decoupling Relationship Between Carbon Balance Pressure and New Urbanization in the Core Area of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,China

作　　者：李咏华[1,2] 高欣芸 姚松 葛丹东[1,3] LI Yonghua;GAO Xinyun;YAO Song;GE Dandong(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,Zhejiang,China;Central for Balance Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,Zhejiang,China;The Architectural Design and Research Institute of Zhejiang University Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310058,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心,浙江杭州310058 [3]浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《经济地理》2022年第12期72-81,共10页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51878593);浙江大学建筑工程学院平衡中心项目(KH-20212946)。

摘　　要：碳平衡压力指数与新型城镇化水平脱钩,是判断区域低碳可持续发展的重要表征,也是评价高质量发展模式、缓解资源环境约束的关键指标。文章通过构建碳平衡压力测度模型和新型城镇化水平评价指标体系,以长三角城市群核心地区16个城市为研究对象,考察2006—2020年二者的水平格局和空间演化特征,基于Tapio脱钩模型及脱钩追赶模型,探讨各城市城镇化建设与碳排放压力的动态演化关系。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群核心地区碳平衡压力在2006年呈现由北向南“低—高—低”的空间分异,2014—2020年多数城市碳平衡压力指数趋于稳定,经历了“十二五”至“十三五”期间产业结构调整、能源结构优化,较“十一五”末呈现明显下降趋势。(2)能源强度效应是长三角城市群核心地区碳平衡压力增长的主要抑制因素,并呈现“减轻→增强→减轻”的趋势。(3)新型城镇化水平在总体上升态势中体现出空间分异、个体差异的特征。(4)Tapio脱钩指数模型显示长三角城市群核心地区依次经历“扩张负脱钩→强脱钩→弱脱钩”状态,整体由粗放扩张向集约低碳发展模式转变;碳平衡压力与新型城镇化水平间的追赶脱钩指数模型显示,以杭州和上海为标杆城市,至2020年,扬州、无锡、镇江三市实现了理想追赶。(5)依据脱钩类型和脱钩追赶状态,提出了高质量发展型、绿色发展型、集约扩张型、承接扩张型和外延扩张型等五类城市的发展模式及相应的高质量发展路径。The decoupling between the carbon balance pressure index and the new urbanization level is an important representation of regional low-carbon and sustainable development,as well as a key indicator to evaluate the high-quality development mode and alleviate resource and environmental constraints.By constructing the carbon balance pressure measurement model and the new urbanization level evaluation index system,this paper takes 16 cities in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the research objects,and analyzes the horizontal pattern and spatial evolution characteristics of the above two factors from 2006 to 2020.Based on the Tapio decoupling model and the decoupling and pursuing model,the dynamic evolution relationship between the new urbanization and the carbon emission pressure in various cities are discussed.The results are shown as follows:1)In 2006,the carbon balance pressure of the core area of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a spatial differentiation of"low-high-low"from the north of the Yangtze River Delta to the south.Due to the industrial structure adjustment and energy structure optimization from the 12th Five-year Plan Period to the 13th Five-year Plan Period,the carbon balance pressure index of most cities tended to be stable from 2014 to 2020,showing a significant downward trend compared with the end of 11th Five-year Plan Period.2)The energy intensity effect is the main inhibitory factor for the growth of carbon balance pressure in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and presents a trend of"reduced→enhanced→reduced".3)The new urbanization level reflects the characteristics of spatial differentiation and individual differences in the overall rising trend.4)The Tapio decoupling index model shows that the core area of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration experiences the status of"expansion negative decoupling→strong decoupling→weak decoupling"in turn,and the region has changed from extensive expansion to intensive low-

关 键 词：碳平衡压力指数 新型城镇化 脱钩模型 一体化发展 高质量发展 绿色发展 长三角城市群 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]