公路运输货物价值估计及其在经济分析中的应用  

Goods Value Estimation of Highway Freight and Its Application in Economic Analysis

作　　者：张彭 王嘉 霍恩泽 王英平[1,2] 田跃 毛恒彬[3] 邢宇鹏 ZHANG Peng;WANG Jia;HUO En-ze;WANG Ying-ping;TIAN Yue;Mao Heng-bin;XING Yu-peng(Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China;Laboratory for Traffic&Transport Planning Digitalization,Beijing 100028,China;Department of Transportation of Hunan Province,Changsha 410004,China;Beihang University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部规划研究院,北京市100028 [2]综合交通规划数字化实验室,北京市100028 [3]湖南省交通运输厅,长沙市410004 [4]北京航空航天大学,北京市102206

出　　处：《公路》2022年第12期231-238,共8页Highway

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目,项目编号62173167;交通运输部战略规划政策项目,项目编号2020-23-02;湖南省第四次全国经济普查研究课题,项目编号2020-02;湖南省交通科技项目,项目编号202148。

摘　　要：长期以来公路运输货物的价值难以获取,制约了公路运输与国民经济关系的分析。首先,使用物流、经济、运输等数据,通过多源数据融合估计国民经济各行业经公路运输货物的价值。其次,通过构造行业大类及映射关系,解决由于国民经济和公路运输货物分类标准不同,带来的货物价值和货运量难以分类匹配的问题。再次,基于货值估计结果从多角度分析公路运输与国民经济的关系。以湖南省为例进行测算。结果显示,提出的方法初步实现了公路货运对国民经济服务作用的量化评估、公路货运与国民经济各行业关系分析、公路运输需求结构变化趋势分析。For a long time, the value of goods transported by road has been difficult to obtain, which restricts the analysis of the relationship between road transport and the national economy.First,the value of goods transported by road in various industries of the national economy is estimated through multisource data fusion using data such as logistics,economy,and transportation.Secondly,by constructing industry categories and mapping relationships,the problem that the goods value could not be matched with the freight volume in terms of the industries is solved due to the different classification standards of the national economy and road transport goods.Thirdly,based on the estimated value of goods,the relationship between road transportation and national economy is analyzed from multiple perspectives.The Hunan Province is taken as example to conduct calculation.The results show that the proposed method has primarily realized the quantitative assessment of the service effect of road freight on the national economy,the analysis of the relationship between road freight and various industries of the national economy,and the analysis of the changing trend of road transportation demand structure.

关 键 词：运输经济 公路货运 货物价值 货物种类 行业门类 

分 类 号：F540[经济管理—产业经济]