小冲突如何演变为大事件——县域社会风险场演化机理与控制研究  

How a Minor Conflict Evolves into a Major Event:Research on Evolution Mechanism and Control of Social Risks in County Field

作　　者：宋劲松 夏霆 SONG Jin-song;XIA Ting

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校[国家行政学院]应急管理培训中心,北京100089

出　　处：《中南民族大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2023年第1期121-130,186,共11页Journal of South-Central Minzu University (Humanities and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：基于系统动力学视角,分析县域社会风险场运作的系统要素,较为完整地呈现了群体性事件发展的因果循证,丰富了县域社会风险研究的理论基础;引入物理学的“能量场”概念,理论探索与事例实证并进,构建县域社会风险场的演化模型并量化仿真,觅求防控小冲突升级为大事件的关键要素,探寻县域社会风险存量消减和增量控制之道。研究结果表明,城镇化发展质量对县域社会风险能量变化的灵敏度最高;个人素质虽亦与风险能量负向相关,但其控制效用并不明显。现场维稳与谣言治理力度的提升均呈现出显著的县域社会风险能量控制效果,而其中现场维稳稍胜一筹,是资源和成本的重点投入对象。防治县域社会风险应有具体针对措施。From the perspective of system dynamics,this paper analyzes the system elements of the operation of social risks in county field,presents the causal evidence of the development of group events,and enriches the theoretical basis of social risk research at county level.This study also introduces the concept of“energy field”in physics,and integrate theoretical exploration and case analysis together.Through constructing the evolution model of county social risk field and quantitative simulation,this study finds the key elements to prevent small conflicts from developing into major events,and explores the way to realize county social risk stock reduction and increment control.The results show that the development level of urbanization has the highest sensitivity to the change of county social risk energy.Although personal quality is also negatively correlated with risk energy,its control effect is not obvious.The improvement of on-site stability maintenance and rumor governance shows a significant effect to county social risk energy control.Among them,on-site stability maintenance is slightly better,which should be the key investment object for resources and costs.Based on these,this paper puts forward some suggestions to prevent and control county social risks.

关 键 词：县域社会 风险场域 风险能量流动 系统动力学 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]