广东省2035年土地利用空间分布的模拟预测  

Simulation and prediction of spatial distribution of land use in Guangdong province in 2035

作　　者：许贤炯 龚建周[1] 陈晓越[1] XU Xian-jiong;GONG Jian-zhou;CHEN Xiao-yue(School of Geography and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学与遥感学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《广州大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期81-88,共8页Journal of Guangzhou University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071123)。

摘　　要：明确区域未来土地利用空间分布,是解决土地资源短缺和优化土地利用布局的前提。文章以我国GDP排名连续第一的广东省为研究区域,基于地理探测器剖析土地利用变化的主控因素,采用马尔科夫模型模拟未来2035年各土地利用类型数量,最后用FLUS模型模拟预测未来广东省土地利用的空间分布。模拟结果表明,2035年广东省建设用地增长最快,林地减少最多,这与珠三角地区建设用地持续侵占耕地、林地密切相关。耕地和林地的保护仍然是未来解决人地矛盾的重点与难点。It is a fundamental prerequisite for the solution of land resource shortage and the optimization of land use layout to clarify the regional spatial distribution of future land use. This paper selects Guangdong province, which has been ranked first in GDP in China for years, as the study area for the following analysis. The first one is to analyze the main factors of land use change based on the simulations with GeoDetector to the quantity of the land use types in 2035 by using Markov model. The second one is to simulate and predict the spatial distribution of land use in Guangdong province in the future with FLUS model. The results show that the construction land of Guangdong will grow the fastest while the forest land will decrease the most in 2035. Meanwhile, the construction land will continue to encroach the cultivated land and the forest land. Consequently, the protection of cultivated land and forest land is still the focus and difficulty in solving the future contradiction between human and land resources.

关 键 词：土地利用空间分布 FLUS模型 地理探测器 模拟预测 广东省 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]