基于GM(1,1)模型的内江市区域物流需求预测  

Demand Forecast of Regional Logistics in Neijiang City Based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：朱梦琳 ZHU Meng-lin(School of Artificial Intelligence,Neijiang Normal University,Neijiang 641100,China)

机构地区：[1]内江师范学院人工智能学院,四川内江641100

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2022年第12期15-17,共3页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：内江师范学院2022年度校级科研项目(2022QN29)。

摘　　要：采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,以内江市2014年至2020年货运周转量为基础数据进行仿真,对内江市2021年至2025年物流需求量进行预测。研究结果表明:基于GM(1,1)模型的预测结果平滑性较好,预测精度符合要求,可以有效地反映出内江市物流需求量的整体变化趋势。通过GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,为促进内江市物流业发展提出相关建议。The GM(1,1)grey forecast model is used for simulation based on the freight turnover data of Neijiang City from 2014 to 2020,and the logistics demand of Neijiang City from 2021 to 2025 is predicted.The research results show that the prediction results based on the GM(1,1)model have good smoothness,and the prediction accuracy meets the requirements and can effectively reflect the overall change trend of logistics demand in Neijiang City.Through the GM(1,1)grey forecast model,relevant suggestions are put forward for promoting the development of the logistics industry in Neijiang City.

关 键 词：物流需求 GM(1 1)模型 需求预测 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]