区域开发策略对农业土地利用格局影响的动态模拟——以云南省为例  

Dynamic Simulation of the Impact of Regional Development Strategy on Agricultural Land Use Pattern:A Case Study of Yunnan Province

作　　者：赵威 薛领[1] ZHAO Wei;XUE Ling(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《开发研究》2022年第5期58-71,共14页Research On Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“空间经济演化的微观机理与动态模拟”(71873007);国家社会科学基金重点项目“新时代实施区域协调发展战略研究”(22AZD043)。

摘　　要：区域开发策略对国土空间开发格局有深远影响,但是忽略了不同性质的开发策略对农业土地利用格局的影响评估。作为国土空间规划编制基础的“双评价”,过于强调自然资源本底,忽略了集聚经济在国土空间演化过程中的根本驱动作用,势必影响农业土地开发和利用的精准性和科学性。针对这两个“忽略”,构建了一个区域开发策略对农业空间格局动态影响的分析框架,并以此为基础确立农业土地利用格局演化模型的驱动要素、模拟参数和策略情景。模拟并分析云南省国土空间演化路径在均衡性空间中性(历史延续、生态优先、农业优先、城镇优先)与非均衡性空间倾斜(滇中城市群发展、轴带开放辐射)开发策略下的差异,将不同开发策略的农业土地利用模拟结果与“双评价”中农业生产适宜性进行对照,评估不同策略影响下的农业土地利用效率。结果表明,农业优先的土地开发策略相较其他的策略更加体现国土空间的整体优化格局。从模拟结果看,此策略下农业土地利用连片化程度更高,更有利于发挥农业生产的规模效应,同时,其结果与农业生产适宜性的土地分布匹配程度最高,更能够实现农业用地资源高效利用。Regional development strategies have a profound impact on the development pattern of territorial space,but the impact assessment of different regional strategies on agricultural land use patterns is ignored.The“double evaluation”,as the basis for the formulation of national land space planning,lays too much emphasis on the background of natural resources and ignores the fundamental driving role of the agglomeration economy in the evolution of territorial space,which is bound to affect the precision and scientificity of agricultural land development and utilization.Aiming at this two“ignorance”,this paper constructs an analysis framework of the dynamic impact of regional strategies on the agricultural spatial pattern and establishes the driving factors,simulation parameters,and strategy scenarios of the evolution model of agricultural land use pattern on this basis.This paper also has the simulation and analysis of evolution path of land space in Yunnan under the development strategy differences in neutral balance space(historical continuity,ecological priority,agricultural priority and urban priority)and unbalance space tilt(urban agglomeration development in central regions of Yunnan,shaft open radiation),and it gives the contrast of the agricultural land use simulation results with different development strategies and the suitability of agricultural production in the“double evaluation”to evaluate the agricultural land use efficiency under the influence of different strategies.The results show that,compared with the other strategies,the land development strategy of agricultural priority better reflects the overall optimization pattern of national land space.According to the simulation results,the contiguous degree of agricultural land use under this strategy is higher,which is more conducive to the development of the scale effect of agricultural production.At the same time,the simulation results of the agricultural priority strategy match the land distribution of agricultural production suitability t

关 键 词：区域开发策略 双评价 农业土地利用 云南省 情景模拟 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]