基于因素分解模型的宁夏电力消费驱动因素分析  

Driving factors analysis on Ningxia′s power consumption based on factor decomposition model

作　　者：余蕾 YU Lei(State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Yinchuan Ningxia 750001,China)

机构地区：[1]国网宁夏电力有限公司,宁夏银川750001

出　　处：《宁夏电力》2022年第6期66-70,共5页Ningxia Electric Power

摘　　要：随着电力系统向清洁低碳转型以及电力消费持续快速增长,电力可靠供应的保障难度加大,需进一步研究电力消费增长规律,为电力保供、电网发展以及电力需求预测等工作提供参考。“十二五”以来,宁夏全社会用电量增速大幅波动,本文应用因素分解模型对宁夏2011—2021年电力消费增量进行分析,结果表明:经济规模扩大是电力消费增长的首要动力,产业结构变化对电力消费影响较小,而电耗强度抑制用电量增长并且是增速波动的主要原因。With the transformation of power system to a clean and low-carbon type and the continuously rapid growth of power consumption, it is getting more difficult to ensure stable supply of electricity. Therefore, it is necessary to further study the regularity of power consumption so as to provide reference for the power supply,power grid development and power demands forecast. Since the implement of the12th Five-Year Plan, electricity consumption in Ningxia has fluctuated greatly. The increment of electricity consumption in Ningxia from2011 to 2021 is analyzed by the factor decomposition model. The results indicate that the expansion of economic scale is the primary driving force for the growth of power consumption, and that the change of industrial structure has little impact on power consumption. Whereas intensity of power consumption restrains the use of electric power and becomes the primary reason for fluctuation of the growth rate.

关 键 词：电力消费 因素分解模型 新型电力系统 宁夏 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]