跨流域调水背景下粮食区域贸易对粮食种植结构的影响——基于“实体水-虚拟水”流动视角  

Impact of regional grain trade on grain planting structure in the context of inter⁃basin water transfer: based on the perspective of ‘physical water and virtual water’ flow

作　　者：金珏雯 穆月英[1] 杨鑫 JIN Juewen;MU Yueying;YANG Xin(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第12期176-192,共17页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国粮食生产的水资源时空匹配及优化路径研究”(批准号:18ZDA074)。

摘　　要：水是农业的命脉,水资源不同于土地资源,可以跨区域流动。文章基于“实体水-虚拟水”流动视角,运用2004—2020年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型估计了跨流域调水背景下粮食区域贸易对粮食种植比例和水稻、小麦、玉米三大主粮种植比例的影响。研究结果表明:①对于粮食输出区,“实体水-虚拟水”流动影响降低,粮食总体种植比例提高,粮食内部玉米种植比例下降。说明粮食输出区水资源压力增加,对粮食生产诱致性技术变迁的促进作用与区域生产分工的强化作用大于限制作用,且存在“灌溉效率悖论”,即节水技术进步导致高耗水作物种植增加。②对于粮食输入区,“实体水-虚拟水”流动影响增加,粮食种植比例下降,短期水稻和玉米种植比例提高,且高耗水作物水稻种植比例提高幅度更大,长期水稻和玉米种植比例下降,且低耗水作物玉米种植比例下降程度更大。说明粮食生产区域分工与强化作用降低了粮食输入区粮食种植比例,但粮食内部结构向耗水方向发展。③当前“实体水-虚拟水”流动作用下,粮食输入区对输出区粮食种植比例和粮食内部玉米种植比例具有负向的空间溢出效应,说明粮食输入区水资源压力减小对粮食输出区的粮食生产具有负向影响,且加剧了粮食内部结构的“灌溉效率悖论”现象。粮食输出区对粮食输入区的粮食种植比例不具有显著影响,短期降低了水稻和玉米的种植比例,且高耗水作物水稻种植比例下降更多,长期提高了水稻和玉米种植比例,且低耗水作物玉米种植比例提高更多,说明粮食输出区促进了粮食输入区粮食内部结构向节水方向发展。最后,提出实施“实体水-虚拟水”统筹管理,大力促进粮食输出区节水农业发展以及建立区域粮食虚拟水补偿制度等政策启示。Water is the lifeblood of agriculture.Different from land resources,water resources can flow across regions.Based on the perspective of‘physical water and virtual water’flow and using the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2004 to 2020,this paper used the dynamic spatial Durbin model to estimate the impact of regional grain trade on the proportion of grain planting and that of rice,wheat,and corn in the context of inter-basin water transfer.The results showed that:①For grain output areas,the impact of‘physical water and virtual water’flow decreased,the overall proportion of grain planting increased,and the proportion of corn planting among the grains decreased.It showed that the increase of water resource pressure in grain output areas played a greater role in promoting the induced technological change of grain production and strengthening the regional production division than limiting them,and there was a‘paradox of irrigation efficiency’,that is,the progress of water-saving technology led to the increase of high water consumption crops.②For grain input areas,the impact of‘physical water and virtual water’flow increased,the proportion of grain planting decreased,the proportion of short-term rice and corn planting increased,the proportion of rice(high water consumption crop)planting increased more,the proportion of long-term rice and corn planting decreased,and the proportion of corn(low water consumption crop)planting decreased more.It showed that the regional division of labor and strengthening of grain production reduced the proportion of grain planting in grain input areas,but the internal structure of grain was developing in the direction of more water consumption.③Under the current‘physical water and virtual water’flow,the grain input areas had a negative spatial spillover effect on the grain planting proportion in the output areas and the corn planting proportion among the grains,which showed that the reduction of water resource pressure

关 键 词：“实体水-虚拟水”流动 跨流域调水 粮食区域贸易 粮食种植结构 水资源压力 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]