家庭债务问题研究:影响因素、经济社会效应、风险评估及防范  

Research on Household Debt Issues:Influencing Factors,Economic and Social Effects,Risk Assessment and Prevention

作　　者：张栋浩 王栋 ZHANG Donghao;WANG Dong(Institute of Chinese Financial Studies,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;Research Institute of Economics and Management,Southwesterm University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究院 [2]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院

出　　处：《金融评论》2022年第6期93-121,124,共30页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“中国家庭债务风险的生成机理、风险评估与防范机制研究”(项目批准号:72003155)的资助。

摘　　要：实体部门杠杆率适度增长有利于促进经济发展,而杠杆率一旦超过合理范围则可能抑制经济发展。作为经济主体的需求部门,家庭部门债务过高会通过抑制消费与投资、增大金融体系不稳定等渠道,对宏观经济增长造成负面影响。近年来,中国家庭部门债务快速增长、杠杆率迅速攀升,而收入及储蓄增速放缓,家庭部门债务负担正在不断加重、债务风险问题日益增加。但是,在我国防范化解金融风险过程中,社会各界主要关注了企业部门和政府部门债务问题,对家庭部门债务问题的关注及研究还有待加强。为此,本文从家庭债务增长的影响因素、经济社会效应、债务风险评估及风险防范机制出发,对家庭债务问题的相关研究进行综述,全面分析当前该领域的研究热点及前沿,并指出其中研究不足和中国家庭债务问题的未来研究方向,进而为我国有效防范化解金融风险和促进经济实现高质量发展提供证据支持和政策建议。The moderate growth of the leverage ratio of the real economic sector is conducive to promoting economic development,while once the leverage ratio exceeds a reasonable range,it may inhibit economic development.As a main demand sector of the economy,excessive household debt will exert a negative effect on macro-economic growth by restraining consumption and investment and increasing the instability of the financial system.In recent years,China’s household debt and the leverage ratio have risen rapidly,while the growth rate of household income and savings has slowed down.As a result,the household debt burden and the debt risk problem are increasing.However,in the process of preventing and defusing financial risks in China,all sectors of society have been paying attention to the debt problems of the enterprise sector and the government sector,while the attention and research on the debt problems of the household sector need to be strengthened.To this end,starting from the household debt growth’s influencing factors,economic and social effect,debt risk assessment and risk prevention mechanisms,this paper reviews the relevant research on household debt issues,comprehensively analyzes the current research hotspots and frontiers in this field,points out the shortcomings of existing research and future research directions of China’s household debt issues.The paper aims to provide evidence support and policy recommendations for government to effectively prevent and resolve financial risks and promote highquality economic development.

关 键 词：家庭债务增长 影响因素 经济社会效应 风险评估 风险防范 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]