福建省碳排放预测与碳达峰路径分析  

Carbon emission prediction and carbon peak path analysis in Fujian Province

作　　者：李心萍 苏时鹏 张雅珊 朱翔 LI Xin-ping;SU Shi-peng;ZHANG Ya-shan;ZHU Xiang(Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,School of Public Administration,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2023年第2期139-147,共9页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：福建省软科学重点项目(编号:2020R0038);福建农林大学创新基金项目(编号:KXPY21904、KCX21F16A);福建省科技创新战略研究联合项目资助(编号:2022R0139)。

摘　　要：使用2000—2019年福建省碳排放量数据,基于STIRPAT拓展模型,利用岭回归并结合情景分析法模拟福建省2020—2050年碳排放量进行实证研究,预测不同情境下福建省碳达峰的时间与碳排放峰值,为探讨福建省实现碳达峰的最优路径提供依据。结果表明:(1)福建省在2000—2019年期间未达到碳排放峰值,且人均GDP与碳排放量没有出现倒U型曲线;(2)在基准情境下,福建省将在2040年实现碳达峰,峰值为4.730×10^(8)t;在产业结构优化情景、节能情景和粗放情景下,福建省碳排放峰值分别约为3.979×10^(8)t、4.502×10^(8)t和6.799×10^(8)t,分别于2034年、2040年和2040年实现碳达峰;在绿色发展情景下,福建省将在2030年实现碳达峰,碳排放峰值为2.976×10^(8)t。对比之下,绿色发展情景是福建省实现碳达峰的最佳发展路径。最后,从法律政策、能源体系、产业结构、碳交易市场等方面探讨福建省如何实现碳达峰的最优路径。Taking the carbon emission data of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2019 as the research object,based on the STIRPAT expansion model,this paper used ridge regression and scenario analysis to simulate the carbon emission of Fujian Province from 2020 to 2050,and predicted the time of carbon peak and the peak of carbon emission in Fujian Province under different scenarios,so as to provide a basis for exploring the optimal path for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peak.The results showed that:(1)Fujian Province did not reach the peak of carbon emissions during 2000-2019,and there was no inverted U-shaped curve between per capita GDP and carbon emissions.(2)In the baseline scenario,Fujian Province would achieve a carbon peak in 2040,with a peak of 4.730×10^(8)t.In the industrial structure optimization scenario,energy-saving scenario and extensive scenario,the peak of carbon emissions in Fujian Province was about 3.979×10^(8)t,4.502×10^(8)t and 6.799×10^(8)t,respectively,reaching the peak in 2034,2040 and 2040.Under the green development scenario,Fujian Province would reach the carbon peak in 2030,and the carbon emission peak was 2.976×10^(8)t.In contrast,green development scenario was the best development path to achieve carbon peak in Fujian Province.Finally,from the aspects of legal policy,energy system,industrial structure,carbon trading market and so on,this paper discussed the optimal path to achieve carbon peak in Fujian Province.

关 键 词：碳达峰 STIRPAT模型 情景分析 福建省 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]