1950~2022年鄱阳湖汛期最低水位演变分析  

Alteration analysis of minimum water level in flood season of Poyang Lake from 1950 to 2022

作　　者：许斌[1,2] 邹大胜 刘雁翼 吴涛 XU Bin;ZOU Dasheng;LIU Yanyi;WU Tao(Water Resources Comprehensive Research Department,Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Eco-Environmental Science of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430010,China;China Railway Water Conservancy&Hydropower Planning and Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,湖北武汉430010 [2]流域水资源与生态环境科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430010 [3]中铁水利水电规划设计集团有限公司,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2023年第2期8-11,共4页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51809009,41890822);长江科学院院级创新团队项目(CKSF2017061/SZ)。

摘　　要：针对2022年鄱阳湖汛期出现的干旱事件,基于非一致性水文频率计算原理,分析了1950~2022年鄱阳湖汛期最低水位的变化情况。结果显示:受变化环境的影响,鄱阳湖汛期最低水位于1999年出现了跳跃向下的中变异,均值由变异前的12.32 m演变为变异后的10.15 m,降幅17.6%。采用基于跳跃分析的非一致性水文频率计算方法,以工业、生活取水保证率为典型频率,鄱阳湖汛期最低水位变异前、变异后P=97%的保证水位分别为9.3 m和7.13 m。Considering the drought event of Poyang Lake in flood season of the year of 2022,the variation of minimum water level in flood season of Poyang Lake from 1950 to 2022 was studied.The results showed that under the changing environment, the middle jump hydrological alteration happened at 1999 in the minimum water level series of flood season of Poyang Lake with the average value changing from 12.32 m to 10.15 m before and after the alteration, and the decreasing range was 17.6%.Based on the inconsistency hydro-logical frequency calculation method with jump analysis, and taking the assurance frequency of industrial and domestic water intake as the typical rate, the minimum water level of P=97% in flood season of Poyang Lake was 9.3 m and 7.13 m before and after the alteration.

关 键 词：汛期最低水位 频率分析 非一致性 2022年干旱 鄱阳湖 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]