征管信息化降低了企业税收不确定性吗——来自金税三期准自然实验的证据  

Can Informatization of Tax Enforcement Reduce the Uncertainty of Enterprise Taxation? Evidence from A Quasi-natural Experiment on the “Third Phase of Golden Tax Project”

作　　者：刘冰熙 陶东杰 陈政弘 LIU Bing-xi;TAO Dong-jie;CHEN Zheng-hong(School of Finance and Public Administration,Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院财政与公共管理学院,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2022年第6期89-103,共15页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72103056);国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BJY032)。

摘　　要：征管信息化通过压缩税收自由裁量空间提高了税收征管的规范性,并有助于降低企业税收的不确定性。在借鉴最优直接税制度模型的基础上,构建相应的理论模型以揭示征管信息化降低企业税收不确定性的作用机制,并进一步基于金税三期工程实施的准自然实验,利用我国上市公司面板数据和连续性双重差分法进行实证分析,从微观层面考察征管信息化对企业税收不确定性的影响。研究发现:金税三期工程的实施显著降低了企业税收的不确定性,尤其体现于民营企业;当地方面临较大的财政增收压力时,征管信息化对税收不确定性的抑制效应被削弱;宏观层面的拓展性分析表明,金税三期工程的实施提高了地区内企业税负的均等化水平。本研究为优化税收营商环境、深化税收征管体制改革提供了政策启示。Informatization of tax enforcement improve the standardization of tax collection and management by reducing tax discretionary space, it helps reduce corporate tax uncertainty. Though constructing a theoretical model based on the theory of optimal direct tax system, this paper aims to reveal the mechanism by which informatization of tax enforcement reduces the corporate tax uncertainty. Based on the Quasi-natural experiment based on the implementation of “Third Phase of Golden Tax Project”, this study employs the panel data of Chinese listed companies and the continuous difference-in-differences method to examine the impact of informationization of tax enforcement on the uncertainty of enterprise taxation at the micro level. It is found that the implementation of “Third Phase of Golden Tax Project” has significantly reduced the uncertainty of corporate tax revenue, especially for private enterprises;in addition, when local governments face greater pressures to increase fiscal revenues, the inhibitory effect of informatization of tax enforcement on taxation uncertainty is weakened. An expansive analysis at the macro level shows that the implementation of “Third Phase of Golden Tax Project” has improved the level of equalization of corporate tax burdens in the region. The findings of this study provide policy enlightenment for optimizing business environment in taxation and deepening the reform of tax collection and management system.

关 键 词：税收征管 征管信息化 税收负担 金税三期工程 税收不确定性 营商环境 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]