安全降碳背景下能源韧性的测度指标及其宏观分析框架研究  

A Study on the Measurement Indicators of Energy Resilience in the Context of Safely Reducing Carbon and its Macro Analysis Framework

作　　者：黄建 冯升波[2] 肖彬彬 曾明 Huang Jian;Feng Shengbo;Xiao Binbin;Zeng Ming

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学法政学院 [2]中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第12期115-125,151,共12页Macroeconomics

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“新发展格局下浙江省重点行业和领域实现‘双碳’目标的内在机制、技术选择和实现路径研究”(LZ22D010003)的资助。

摘　　要：在安全降碳的背景下,提升能源韧性是必由之路。但目前能源韧性的测度指标偏重于工程学特征,包括了能源系统的稳健性、快速性、恢复性、适应性等,有利于微电网、社区综合能源系统等微观领域的分析,但在指标综合性和可比性上存在不足,在宏观分析和大时间尺度分析拓展上仍然存在较多问题。本文创新性地提出了测度能源韧性的期望稳健性指标和综合有效性指标,前者将外部破坏事件发生的概率与强度考虑到稳健性分析中;后者将成本有效性、降碳有效性、资源有效性等目标进行整合,提出运用全要素生产率的方法来进行综合有效性的计算与分析。In the context of safely reducing carbon, enhancing energy resilience is the way to go. However, the current indicators for measuring energy resilience favor engineering characteristics, including robustness, rapidity, resilience, and adaptability of energy systems, which are beneficial to the analysis of micro-grids, community integrated energy systems and other micro areas, but there are shortcomings in the comprehensiveness and comparability of indicators, and there are still more problems in macro analysis and expansion of large time scale analysis. The former takes the probability and intensity of external damage events into consideration in the robustness analysis;the latter integrates the objectives of cost effectiveness, carbon reduction effectiveness, and resource effectiveness, and proposes to use the idea of total factor productivity(TFP) for the calculation and analysis of comprehensive effectiveness.

关 键 词：安全降碳 能源韧性 测度指标 期望稳健性 综合有效性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]