人口结构转型视角下中长期中国粮食产需形势分析与政策建议  

An Analysis of China’s Grain Production and Demand Situation in the Medium and Long Term from the Perspective of Population Structure Transition and Policy Suggestions

作　　者：张琛 周振[2] Zhang Chen;Zhou Zhen

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所 [2]中国宏观经济研究院产业经济与技术经济研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第12期126-139,167,共15页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国人口转变的独特性、经济影响及政策研究”(72141310);中国社会科学院青年科研启动项目“乡村振兴与人口流动研究”(2023YQNQD038)的资助。

摘　　要：本文结合第七次全国人口普查的数据,采用队列要素法对未来中国人口总量进行预测,在考虑人口结构变化和消费结构变化的基础上,对未来中国粮食产量与需求量进行测算,形成如下研究结论。第一,从总量看,中国粮食产不足需形势将长期存在,一般情景下中国粮食产需缺口持续扩大,其中2025年、2030年和2035年缺口分别为1559万吨、3686万吨和5222万吨。第二,从结构看,中国口粮产量可能将长期大于需求,但饲料粮产需缺口将呈持续扩大趋势,预计到2035年,饲料粮产需缺口可能将达到23000万吨至26000万吨。第三,从资源化视角看,一般情景下2025年、2030年和2035年中国粮食产需形成的缺口分别为4028万亩、9525万亩和13492万亩的耕地资源,相当于2020年中国耕地资源的2.16%~7.23%。根据以上研究结论,本文建议在夯实口粮生产基础之上,要高度重视饲料粮国内供给,重点保障玉米、大豆生产,推动更多生产支持政策向饲料粮转移,树立“大食物观”理念,实施畜牧业高质量发展行动。This paper combines data from the Seventh National Population Census, adopts the cohort element method to forecast the total population of China in the future, and measures the future grain production and demand in China on the basis of the changes in population structure and consumption structure, forming the following research conclusions. First, in terms of total volume, China’s grain production shortage and demand situation will persist for a long time, and the gap between China’s grain production and demand will continue to expand under the general scenario, including 15.59 million tons, 36.86 million tons and 52.22 million tons in 2025, 2030 and 2035, respectively. Second, from the structural point of view, China’s ration production will probably exceed demand in the long term, but the feed grain production and demand gap will continue to expand, and it is expected that by 2035, the feed grain production and demand gap will probably reach 23,000 million tons to 26,000 million tons. Third, from the resource-based perspective, the gap formed by China’s grain production and demand in 2025, 2030 and 2035 under the general scenario is 40.28 million mu, 95.25 million mu and 134.92 million mu of arable land resources respectively, which is equivalent to 2.16%~7.23% of China’s arable land resources in 2020. Based on the above findings, this paper suggests that, in addition to consolidating the basis of food production, we should attach great importance to the domestic supply of feed grains, focus on ensuring the production of corn and soybeans, promote the transfer of more production support policies to feed grains, establish the concept of ‘big food concept’, and implement the action of high-quality development of animal husbandry.

关 键 词：人口结构 粮食安全 产需缺口 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]