集聚经济视角下上海市高质量发展演化研究  

Research on the Evolution of High-quality Urban Development From the Perspective of Agglomeration Economy:Evidence From Shanghai City

作　　者：陈跃刚[1] 王旭健 吴艳 CHEN Yuegang;WANG Xujian;WU Yan

机构地区：[1]上海大学悉尼工商学院,上海201899 [2]上海立信会计金融学院国际经贸学院,上海201209

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2022年第12期101-111,共11页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划基金(项目编号2018TZB011)。

摘　　要：在构建理论模型演绎专业化城市以较低成本生产批量产品、多样化城市孵化创新生产原创产品基础上,追踪改革开放后上海1978—2020年相关数据,实证检验各个行业的产出弹性对地方化经济或城市化经济的作用程度,深入探寻集聚经济发展演化历史规律。研究发现:(1)采矿业、制造业等五个行业导致了地方化经济效应,金融业、房地产业、信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业等六个行业导致了城市化经济效应;(2)集聚经济发展演化历程是地方化经济运动轨迹是右偏的“倒U型”曲线,先推动专业化城市走向成熟再走向衰退,城市化经济运动轨迹是“正U型”曲线的右半部分,推动多样化城市形成乃至升级至孵化创新型城市,实现上海市高质量发展;(3)集聚经济发展演化的作用力量主要来自基础设施建设、公共政策引导和出口型部门企业迁移。最后从促进要素汇聚角度提出五点发展建议。Building a theoretical model to deduce that firms develop prototype-production as a nursery in diversified cities,switch to mass-production with lower costs in specialized cities.Tracking the relevant data of Shanghai City from 1978 to 2020 since China′s Reform and Opening,this study empirically tests the effect of the elasticity of various industries output on the localization economy or the urbanization economy,and explores the evolutionary history of agglomeration economy in Shanghai City.The main findings are as follows:(1)Five industries including mining industry and manufacturing industry,significantly lead to the localization economic effect,and six industries including finance industry,real estate industry,information transmission,software and information technology services industry,significantly lead to the urbanization economic effect.(2)In the evolutionary history of agglomeration economy,the moving track of localization economy is“Inverted-U shaped”curve(skewed to the right),promoting specialized city to mature,and then to recession,whereas the moving track of urbanization economy is“Right-U shaped”curve(the right half),promoting diversified city to formation,and then to upgrading nursery city,which achieves high-quality urban development.(3)The evolution of agglomeration economy is mainly influenced by infrastructure construction,public policy guidance and enterprise immigration or emigration in export-oriented sectors.Finally,five development suggestions are put forward from the perspective of promoting the convergence of elements.

关 键 词：上海市高质量发展 地方化经济 城市化经济 行业产出弹性 孵化创新型城市 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]