中国城市经济发展与碳中和协同演进研究  

Synergetic Evolution of Economic Growth and Carbon Neutrality Process of Chinese Cities

作　　者：李曼琪 陈少强 LI Man-qi;CHEN Shao-qiang(Research Institute for Eco-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences,Beijing 100142,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,100710 [2]中国财政科学研究院资源环境和生态文明研究中心,100142

出　　处：《城市与环境研究》2022年第4期94-110,共17页Urban and Environmental Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”(批准号:7214001);中国社会科学院重点项目“碳中和的经济分析与政策研究”(批准号:STWM-ZS-2021-001);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“资源枯竭型城市转型发展绩效评估及对策研究”(批准号:2020STSB02)。

摘　　要：城市是推进碳中和目标实现的重要主体。处于不同发展阶段的城市,其碳中和进程与潜力、实现碳中和目标的路线与进度均存在显著差异。深入认识中国城市经济发展与碳中和进程相对趋势变化的异质性,对差异化的碳中和政策和战略制定具有重要意义。本文采用弹性系数法考察2000-2020年中国城市经济发展与碳中和的时空演化进程,根据其相对演化趋势将城市分为四种类型;基于随机森林分类模型得到特征重要性排序,刻画不同类型城市的典型社会经济特征;使用回归模型进一步分析经济与碳中和发展趋势的核心影响因素;最后综合不同类型城市的时空演变和社会经济特征,围绕主要影响因素,结合国内外碳中和先行城市经验,提出实现经济发展与碳中和协同演进的路径建议。研究结果表明,2000年以来,中国城市经济增速总体上放缓,但与碳中和的差距在加速缩小;2010年以来,越来越多的城市逐步实现经济与碳中和协同发展,空间上呈现出由东部地区和中部地区向西部地区推进的趋势;近年来部分城市尤其是老工业基地和资源型城市开始缺乏经济增长动力,或趋近或背离碳中和,主要分布在东北和西部的部分地区。不同类型城市具有较为鲜明的时空分布、社会经济和资源禀赋特征,应充分发挥各自优势,制定多元化、差异化的碳中和路径,并积极探索区域性的碳中和协同战略。Cities are essential players in achieving China’s Carbon Neutrality Goals. Differences exist in the carbon neutrality processes, potentials, timetables, and roadmaps among cities at different economic development stages. Therefore, it is critical to understand the heterogeneity of the synergistic evolution of economic development and carbon neutrality process in Chinese cities, in order to formulate differentiated carbon neutrality policies and strategies. In this paper, the elasticity coefficient is used to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of economic development and carbon neutrality in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020, and cities are classified into four types according to different evolutionary trends. Using the random forest classification model, the ranking of feature importance is obtained and used to portray the typical socioeconomic characteristics of different types of cities. The core socioeconomic influencing factors on the evolutionary trends are further investigated using least squares regression. At last, integrating the spatiotemporal evolution trends and socioeconomic characteristics of different types of cities, major influencing factors on the synergistic development trends, experience of the domestic and foreign pioneer cities’ carbon neutrality strategies, this paper proposes pathways to achieve the synergistic evolution between economic development and carbon neutrality for each type of cities. The results show that since 2000, Chinese cities have experienced a slowdown in economic growth but have accelerated the reduction of the carbon neutral gap. Since 2010, an increasing number of cities have been progressing towards synergistic economic and carbon neutral development, with a spatial pattern moving from the eastern and central to the western regions. However, in recent years, a small number of cities, especially old industrial bases and resource-based cities, have started to experience economic decline, either moving towards or deviating from carbon neutrality, spatially distribu

关 键 词：碳中和 协同发展 弹性系数 随机森林分类模型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]