数据要素驱动与居民消费倾向提升:机理研究和路径分析  

Data Factor Driving and the Increase of Residents’ Propensity to Consume: Mechanism and Path

作　　者：缪言 曾晶 白仲林[2] MIAO Yan;ZENG Jing;BAI Zhong-lin

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学经济学院 [2]天津财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2023年第2期74-85,共12页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“经济高质量发展的宏观调控政策冲击识别与动态因果效应评价研究”(项目编号:19BTJ052)。

摘　　要：在构建新发展格局背景下,我国经济增长模式从投资拉动型向消费促进型转变成为必然。中国宏观经济面临有效需求不足的问题在疫情冲击之下更为凸显,然而,数据作为生产要素深入产业链各环节使得数字化技术得以普及,并延伸至居民生活,进而影响居民消费行为。为了厘清数据要素驱动下居民消费倾向变化的经济机理,本文将数据要素成本、数字化技术与数据质量外生冲击引入包含互联网平台主体的DSGE模型,模拟分析消费、投资、可支配收入和居民消费倾向等变量的演化路径。研究发现,数据要素成本降低加剧产品市场价格竞争,短期降低居民消费倾向,长期则通过收入效应拉动内需增长效率;数字化技术创新通过要素重组升级引致的效率变革增加消费者相对收入、提升居民消费倾向;数据质量改进短期促进投资、挤占消费,降低居民消费倾向,但长期可缓解厂商与消费者的信息不对称,提升居民消费倾向;数字化技术创新在促内需长短期效应俱佳的同时,引致的消费者福利损失最小。It is inevitable for China’s economic growth model to change from investment-driven to consumption-driven. The problem of insufficient effective demand facing China’s macro economy has become more prominent under the impact of the epidemic.However, the penetration of data as a production factor into all links of the industrial chain has enabled the popularization and application of digital technology, thereby contributing to residents’ consumption behavior have an impact.In order to clarify the economic mechanism of the change of residents’ consumption tendency driven by data factor, we constructs a DSGE model that incorporates the main body of the internet platform, which introduces the exogenous impact of data factor cost, digital technology and data quality.We also simulates and analyzes the evolution path of macro variables such as consumption, investment, disposable income and residents’ consumption propensity.The study found that the reduction of the cost of data factor lowers the price of products under perfect competition, and the price effect reduces the propensity to consume in the short-term, but can increase the efficiency of domestic demand in the long-term.We also found that the digital technology innovation increases the relative income of consumers through efficiency changes caused by the reorganization and upgrading of factors, and enhances residents’ propensity to consume.The improvement of data quality can promote investment and squeeze consumption in the short-term, and reduce the propensity to consume, but in the long run it can alleviate the information asymmetry between manufacturers and consumers and increase the propensity to consume.While digital technology innovation has good long-term and short-term effects in promoting domestic demand, it also causes minimal loss of consumer welfare.

关 键 词：数据要素驱动 居民消费倾向 互联网平台 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F064.1