阜新市水资源可持续利用评价及其预测分析  

Evaluation and Prediction of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Fuxin City

作　　者：尹璐璐 YIN Lu-lu(Liaoning Provincial Fuxin Hydrulogical Bureau,Fuxin 123000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省阜新水文局,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2022年第12期185-190,共6页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：以阜新市为研究对象,利用生态足迹理论构建水资源生态承载力模型和足迹模型,并分析阜新市水资源可持续性及其变化趋势,对未来3a的人均水资源生态足迹使用GM(1,1)模型预测。研究表明:2001-2020年阜新市水资源生态承载力小于生态足迹,并且生态足迹呈缓慢上升趋势,该区域处于生态赤字状态;水资源生态压力指数和负载指数很大,万元GDP水生态足迹逐渐下降,用水安全系数低,说明阜新市的水资源利用率不断提高,可持续利用潜力较小,要缓解用水压力需要从外流域大量调水;阜新市未来3a的人均水资源生态足迹将有所下降,水资源可持续利用呈现出向好发展态势。Taking Fuxin City as the research object, the ecological carrying capacity model and footprint model of water resources were constructed by using the ecological footprint theory, and the sustainability and change trend of water resources in Fuxin city were analyzed. The ecological footprint of water resources per capita in the next three years was predicted by GM(1,1) model. The results show that from 2001 to 2020, the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Fuxin City was less than the ecological footprint, and the ecological footprint showed a slow upward trend, indicating that the region was in a state of ecological deficit. The water ecological pressure index and load index are very large, the water ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan of GDP gradually decreases, and the water safety coefficient is low, which indicates that the utilization rate of water resources in Fuxin city is constantly improving, and the sustainable utilization potential is small. The ecological footprint of water resources per capita in Fuxin will decrease in future three days, and the sustainable utilization of water resources will show a positive development trend.

关 键 词：灰色预测 水资源 可持续利用 阜新市 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]