基于DBN的掘进工作面煤尘爆炸事故风险预测  

Risk prediction of coal dust explosion accident in heading face based on dynamic Bayesian network

作　　者：李泓鲲 王孝东[1] 李阳 肖露 陈钟辉 刘杰 LI Hongkun;WANG Xiaodong;LI Yang;XIAO Lu;CHEN Zhonghui;LIU Jie(Faculty of Land Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China;Leiyang Branch of Datang Huayin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hengyang,Hunan 421800,China;College of Economics and Management,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming,Yunnan 650201,China;Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南省昆明市650093 [2]大唐华银电力股份有限公司耒阳分公司,湖南省衡阳市421800 [3]云南农业大学经济管理学院,云南省昆明市650201 [4]昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,云南省昆明市650093

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2023年第1期69-76,共8页China Coal

基　　金：云南省重点研发计划项目资助(202003AC100002);昆明理工大学引进人才科研启动基金项目资助(KKSY201721032)。

摘　　要：针对传统分析方法无法对煤尘爆炸事故进行动态评估的局限性,结合具体案例,提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的掘进工作面煤尘爆炸事故风险分析模型,并运用马尔科夫理论将事故演变全过程与时间相关联。研究结果表明:利用动态贝叶斯网络进行正向推理,得出掘进工作面煤尘爆炸事故3种不同状态的初始先验概率分别为0.090、0.280、0.630,并预测在6个时间片后3种状态概率分别为0.254、0.261、0.485。利用动态贝叶斯网络逆向推理,最终确定局部通风方案设计不合理是对掘进工作面煤尘爆炸事故造成严重后果影响最大的基本风险因素;指出了影响掘进工作面煤尘爆炸事故造成严重后果的5种基本风险因素;认为应该防止这5种基本风险因素同时发生。In view of the limitation of traditional analysis methods unable to realize dynamic evaluation on coal dust explosion accident, combined with specific cases, a risk analysis model for coal dust explosion accident in heading face based on dynamic Bayesian network(DBN) is proposed, and Markov theory is used to correlate the whole process of accident evolution with time. The results show that the initial prior probabilities of three different states of coal dust explosion accidents in heading face are 0.090, 0.280 and 0.630 by using DBN for forward reasoning, and the probabilities of three states after six time slices are predicted to be 0.254, 0.261 and 0.485, respectively. Using DBN reverse reasoning, it is finally determined that the unreasonable design of local ventilation scheme is the basic risk factor with the greatest impact on the serious consequences of coal dust explosion accidents in heading face;five basic risk factors affecting the serious consequences of coal dust explosion accidents in the heading face are pointed out;the five basic risk factors should be prevented from occurring at the same time.

关 键 词：煤矿安全 风险预测 动态贝叶斯网络 煤尘爆炸 耦合作用 风险分析 

分 类 号：TD714.5[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]