我国粮食主产区耕地利用变化的粮食与生态效应研究  

Study on grain and ecological effects of arable land use change in major grain-producing areas in China

作　　者：罗海平[1] 潘柳欣 胡学英 刘祖光 LUO Haiping;PAN Liuxin;HU Xueying;LIU Zuguang(Research Center of Central China Economic and Social Development,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Marxism,Shenzhen University of Technology,Shenzhen 518118,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西南昌330031 [2]深圳技术大学马克思主义学院,广东深圳518118

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2023年第1期226-237,共12页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(21BJL079);广东省教育科学规划课题(2022JY282)。

摘　　要：综合运用土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用变化图谱模型、动态修正的生态系统服务价值模型等方法,测度2000—2018年我国粮食主产区耕地利用变化下的粮食产量变动和生态系统服务价值损益,进而探清制约粮食增产和生态服务能力提升的主要耕地利用变化类型,并形成针对性的优化路径。研究发现:我国粮食主产区的耕地面积整体呈现“北增南减”的空间分异特征和“减大于增”的数量变化特征。2000—2018年间,耕地净转出205.98万hm^(2),建设用地是耕地转出的主要地类。根据耕地利用变化的产出效应,划分4种类型——生态增值-粮食增产型(Ⅰ型)、生态减值-粮食减产型(Ⅱ型)、生态增值-粮食减产型(Ⅲ型)和生态减值-粮食增产型(Ⅳ型),在省级层面上,我国粮食主产区Ⅰ~Ⅳ型面积的占比依次为18.30%、13.36%、33.19%和35.05%,共计造成4.171×10^(10)元的生态系统服务价值损失和9.253×10^(6)t的粮食减产。建设用地占用耕地、未利用地补充耕地分别是最有损、最有益粮食与生态安全的耕地利用变化类型。建议要严控耕地“非农化”“非粮化”,加强对未利用地的生态改良,积极发展林下经济、草原经济等复合型经济农业。By integrated use of the transfer matrix of land use, land-use change atlas model, the dynamic correction methods of ecosystem services value model, the changes of grain output and ecosystem service value profit and loss caused by the change of arable land utilization in major grain-producing areas were measured from 2000 to 2018, and the main arable land use change types restricting the promotion of grain output and ecologial service abilities was figured out, and a targeted optimization path was proposed. The results showed that, the arable land area in major grain-producing areas showed the spatial differentiation of “north increased and south reduced” and the quantity change of “reduced more than increases”. The net transfer of arable land was 205.98×10^(4) hm^(2), and construction land was the main type of arable land transfer. The output effects of arable land use change could be divided into four types, namely, ecological appreciation-grain yield increase type(type Ⅰ), ecological impairment-grain yield reduction type(type Ⅱ), ecological appreciation-grain yield reduction type(type Ⅲ) and ecological impairment-grain yield increase type(type Ⅳ). The area proportion of type Ⅰ-Ⅳ in major grain-producing areas was 18.30%, 13.36%, 33.19% and 35.05%, respectively, at the provincial level and resulted in a total of 4.171×10^(10)yuan of ecosystem service value loss and 9.253×10^(6) t of grain production. The arable land occupied by construction land and the arable land supplemented by unused land were the most harmful and most beneficial types of arable land use change, respectively. Therefore, it was suggested to strictly control the “non-agricultural” and “non-grain” of arable land, strengthen the ecological improvement of unused land, and actively develop complex economic agriculture such as under-forest economy and grassland economy.

关 键 词：耕地利用变化 粮食安全 生态系统服务价值 粮食主产区 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]