重返ICU风险预测模型的系统评价  

The risk prediction models of ICU readmissions:a systematic review

作　　者：杨晓 周会兰[1] 王玲 方杰[1] 杨茂凡 陈柯宇 高杰 YANG Xiao;ZHOU Huilan;WANG Ling;FANG Jie;YANG Maofan;CHEN Keyu;GAO Jie(Department of Critical Care Medicine,North Sichuan Medical College,Nanchong 637000,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]川北医学院附属医院重症医学科,四川南充637000

出　　处：《中国循证医学杂志》2023年第1期67-74,共8页Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

摘　　要：目的系统评价重返重症监护室(ICU)风险预测模型的研究现况。方法计算机检索CNKI、WanFang Data、VIP、CBM、PubMed、EMbase、Web of Science和The Cochrane Library数据库,搜集有关重返ICU风险预测模型的研究,检索时限均为建库至2022年6月12日。由2名研究者独立筛选文献、提取资料并评价纳入研究的偏倚风险后,进行定性系统评价。结果共纳入15个研究,包括23个风险预测模型。纳入模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.609~0.924。纳入模型最常见前5个预测因子依次为年龄、ICU住院时长、心率、呼吸和入科诊断。结论重返ICU风险预测模型的整体预测性能较好,但研究类型及结局指标存在差异,模型的临床价值有待进一步研究验证。Objective To systematically review the risk prediction model of intensive care unit(ICU)readmissions.Methods CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,CBM,PubMed,EMbase,Web of Science and The Cochrane Library databases were electronically searched to collect the related studies on risk prediction models of ICU readmissions from inception to June 12th,2022.Two reviewers independently screened literature,extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies;then,the qualitative systematic review was performed.Results A total of 15 studies involving 23 risk prediction models were included.The area under the ROC curve of the models was 0.609-0.924.The most common five predictors of the included model were age,length of ICU hospitalization,heart rate,respiration,and admission diagnosis.Conclusion The overall prediction performance of the risk prediction model of ICU readmissions is good;however,there are differences in research types and outcomes,and the clinical value of the model needs to be further studied.

关 键 词：重返ICU 风险预测 模型 系统评价 

分 类 号：R459.7[医药卫生—急诊医学]