“双碳”目标下中国电力市场的无谓损失与价格机制  

The Deadweight Loss and Price Mechanism of China’s Power Market under the “Dual-Carbon” Target

作　　者：刘自敏[1] 李兴[1] LIU Zimin;LI Xing(Southwest University,Chongqing,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第12期104-122,共19页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“碳达峰碳中和目标下的电碳关联市场设计与资源配置机制创新研究”(21BJL080)。

摘　　要：降低电力市场无谓损失是实现“双碳”目标的有效手段之一。本文在对中国城市层面电力市场无谓损失及其比率进行理论推导与实际测算的基础上,基于2006—2019年中国工业与居民用电量价与城市面板合并数据,使用份额移动(shift-share)法构建电力市场无谓损失的工具变量,量化研究了以无谓损失率为测度指标的电力市场无谓损失与碳排放之间的因果关系,并通过场景模拟对“双碳”目标下电力市场中工业与居民电价进行了优化设计。研究结果表明:(1)电力价格扭曲导致电力市场无谓损失增高,而随着电力市场化改革的启动,2019年电力市场无谓损失率相对2015年下降约34%;(2)电力市场无谓损失的上升会显著推动碳排放量的增加,并且在东部地区、非碳市场试点地区以及人口规模较大地区的作用强度更大;(3)场景模拟表明,为实现2030年“碳达峰”目标,电力市场中工业电价下降至0.64元/度的同时,居民电价至少需要上升至0.55元/度。本文从电力市场的视角出发,对“怎么‘立’”“如何‘破’”等碳达峰行动中的关键问题尝试进行了回答。Reducing the deadweight loss of the power market is one of the effective means for the Chinese government to achieve the “dual carbon” goal. On the basis of theoretical derivation and actual measurement of the deadweight loss of China’s power market, based on the combined data of China’s industrial and residential power prices and city panels from 2006 to 2019, this paper uses the shift-share method to construct the instrumental variable for the deadweight loss rate of the power market, and studies the causal relationship between the deadweight loss of the power market and carbon emissions. Through scenario simulations, the industrial and residential power prices in the power market under the “dual carbon” target are optimized. The results show that:(1) The distortion of power prices leads to the increase of the deadweight loss in the power market. With the start of the power market reform, the deadweight loss rate in the power market in 2019 decreased by about 34% compared with that in 2015;(2) The increase of the deadweight loss in the power market significantly promoted the increase of carbon emissions, and played a greater role in the eastern region, non-carbon market pilot areas and populous areas;(3) The scenario simulation shows that, in order to achieve the goal of “carbon peaking” in 2030, the industrial power price in the power market needs to be reduced to 0.64 yuan/kWh, while the residential power price needs to be increased to at least 0.55 yuan/kWh. This paper attempts to answer the key questions in the carbon peaking action such as “how to establish” and “how to break” from the perspective of the power market.

关 键 词：电力市场 碳排放 无谓损失 份额移动法 场景模拟 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]