基于随机理论的观音山滑坡稳定性评价及成因机理分析  

Stability evaluation and genesis mechanism analysis of Guanyin Mountain landslide based on stochastic theory

作　　者：李明[1,2] 李伟 石铭[3] 陈福春 理继红 LI Ming;LI Wei;SHI Ming;CHEN Fuchun;LI Jihong(Jiangsu Institute of Geological Survey,Nanjing 210018,China;Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing 210018,China;Yangzhou Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning,Yangzhou 225100,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省地质调查研究院,南京210018 [2]自然资源部地裂缝地质灾害重点实验室,南京210018 [3]扬州市自然资源和规划局,江苏扬州225100

出　　处：《世界地质》2022年第4期892-897,共6页World Geology

基　　金：江苏省省级地质勘查专项资金项目(苏财资环[2019]14号,苏财资环[2020]20号,苏财资环[2021]46号)。

摘　　要：为探究江苏观音山滑坡稳定性及成灾机理,基于地质勘查及监测结果,采用随机模拟的方法,笔者分析了滑坡发育特征,评价了其稳定性及失稳概率,探讨了滑坡致灾因素。研究结果表明:观音山滑坡具有明显的蠕滑迹象,存在3个潜在滑动面,其中潜在滑动面二稳定性系数最低,其天然状态下稳定系数为1.173,失稳概率为9.3%;暴雨状态下稳定性系数为1.011,失稳概率为38.3%。降水加大了滑坡失稳的可能性;观音山滑坡成因还与坡体结构、坡顶荷载、道路切坡及河道开挖等因素有关。To explore the stability and disaster mechanism of Guanyin Mountain landslide,Jiangsu Province,based on geological exploration and monitoring results,the authors analyze the development characteristics of the landslide,evaluate its stability and instability probability,and discuss the disaster driving factors by stochastic simulation method.The results show that there are obvious creep spots in the Guanyin Mountain landslide,with three potential sliding surfaces,among which the second potential surface has the lowest stability coefficient of 1.173 and the instability probability of 9.3%under natural condition,1.011 and 38.3%under storm condition.Precipitation increases the possibility of landslide instability.The mechanism of Guanyin Mountain landslide is also related to slope structure,slope top load,road slope cutting and river channel excavation.

关 键 词：滑坡 随机模拟 失稳概率 成灾机理 观音山 江苏省 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]