基于引力模型与出游率的东北亚各国间入境旅游预测  

Prediction of Inbound Tourism among Northeast Asian Countries Based on GravityModel and Tourism Rate

作　　者：鲁小波[1] 王爽 韩小芳 陈嘉靓 LU Xiaobo;WANG Shuang;HAN Xiaofang;CHEN Jialiang(College of Tourism,Bohai University,Jinzhou,Laoning,121013)

机构地区：[1]渤海大学旅游学院,辽宁锦州121013

出　　处：《东北亚经济研究》2023年第1期108-120,共13页Northeast Asia Economic Research

基　　金：2022年度辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“海洋强省背景下辽宁海洋旅游高质量发展策略研究”(L22BJY007)。

摘　　要：东北亚范围涵盖朝鲜、韩国、日本和蒙古4个国家、中国东北三省及内蒙古自治区、俄罗斯的远东与西伯利亚2个联邦管理区,总面积占世界陆地面积的9.87%,人口占世界总人口的4.64%,是世界经济的重要板块。在东北亚人口老龄化和负增长以及经济发展乏力的背景下,本文采用出游率与引力模型两种方法对后疫情时代的2025-2035年东北亚范围内出入境旅游规模与收入进行预测。结果显示区域范围内的出境旅游出游率将保持在23.12%-53.23%,对地区GDP的总体拉动作用显著,其中日本和韩国是东北亚最主要的国家间出入境旅游客源国,朝鲜与蒙古国则能够借助入境旅游实现收入翻倍的经济增长效果。总体来看,根据出游率预测的结果比较保守,很容易实现;而引力模型预测的结果具有挑战性,但也可以在东北亚各国的共同努力和合作推动下实现。Northeast Asia includes the DPRK,South Korea,Japan and Mongolia as well as three province in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China,and the Far East and Siberia federal administrative areas of Russia.Northeast Asia accounts for 9.87%of the world's land area and 4.64%of the world's population.Northeast Asia is an important sector of the world's economy.In the context of population aging and negative growth as well as weak economic development in Northeast Asia,this paper uses two approaches,tourism rate and gravity mode,to predict the scale and income of inbound and outbound tourism in Northeast Asia from 2025 to 2035 in the post-pandemic era.The results show that the rate of outbound tourism within the region will remain at 23.12%-53.23%,which has a significant overall driving effect on regional GDP.Japan and South Korea are the main source countries of inter-country inbound and outbound tourism in Northeast Asia,while the DPRK and Mongolia can realize the economic growth effect of income doubling with the help of inbound tourism.In general,the result predicted based on the travel rate is conservative and easy to achieve,while the result predicted by gravity model is challenging,but it can also be achieved with the joint efforts and cooperation of Northeast Asian countries.

关 键 词：东北亚 引力模型 出游率 入境旅游 预测 

分 类 号：F114.46[经济管理—国际贸易]