日本自公联合内阁长期化的影响因素研究  

A Study of the Factors Influencing the Long-Termization of the LDP-CGP Coalition Cabinet in Japan

作　　者：蔡亮[1] 李慎璁 CAI Liang;LI Shen-cong(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies,Shanghai,200233,China)

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院中日关系研究中心,上海200233

出　　处：《日本问题研究》2022年第6期1-19,共19页Japanese Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“日本对华外交的战略意图与实践困境研究”(22BGJ057)。

摘　　要：根据在内阁构成、政党体系、选举制度、修宪条件、央行独立性等十个领域,各国在发展过程中所表现出的具体政治特征,西方学界划分出“多数民主模式”与“共识民主模式”两种政治体制的国家阵营。量化显示,日本各项政治特征的计算指标并不符合多数民主或共识民主的典型性,而是位于临界水平。换言之,日本既非多数民主也非共识民主,不能直接照搬某一模式中各政治特征对内阁类型的影响来分析日本当前的情况。不过,即使与理想状态存在出入,但民主模式分类标准中各项特征对一国政治现实的影响,却是广泛存在的,诸特征的相关性,无论对多数还是共识民主国家,也都是普适的,那么,这些政治特征及其彼此的相关关系,将如何影响内阁类型呢?通过相关分析与回归分析的定量研究方法,首先讨论西方民主模式的相关理论,明确各项政治特征的量化标准,在此基础上,具体研究日本政治特征与内阁类型的相关关系,以及作为自变量对内阁类型变动的解释力水平,最后,补充其它潜在的,经济社会领域的内阁类型影响因素。According to the specific political characteristics of each country in its development process in ten fields including the composition of the cabinet,the political party system,the electoral system,the conditions for constitutional amendments and the independence of the central bank,Western academia?has identified two camps of states with political systems:the“majority democracy model”and the“consensus democracy model”.The quantification shows that the calculation indicators for each political characteristic of Japan do not correspond to the the typical characteristics of majority democracy or consensus democracy,but lie at critical levels.In other words,Japan is neither a majority democracy nor a consensus democracy,and the impact of each political feature of a particular model on the type of cabinet cannot be directly transposed to analyse the current situation in Japan.However,even if there are deviations from the ideal,the impact of the characteristics of the classification criteria of the democratic model on a country’s political reality is universal,and the relevance of the characteristics is also universally applicable in both majority and consensus democracies.So how will these political characteristics and their correlations to each other influence the type of cabinet in Japan?This paper will first discuss theories related to the Western model of democracy and clarify the quantitative criteria for each political characteristic.On this basis,the correlation between political characteristics and cabinet types in Japan is specifically examined,as well as the ability of political characteristics as an independent variable to explain changes in cabinet types.Finally,the paper supplements other potential influencing factors of cabinet type in the economic and social spheres.

关 键 词：日本 政治特征 自公联合内阁 相关分析 回归分析 

分 类 号：F73[经济管理—产业经济] F77