从左右轮替现象透视拉美政治发展规律——兼论21世纪拉美两次左翼浪潮的发生及影响  

An Analysis of Latin American Political Development from the Perspective of Left-right Alternation in Power

作　　者：袁东振[1] Yuan Dongzhen

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2022年第6期100-116,157,共18页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来,拉美地区已先后出现两轮左翼执政周期。左翼与右翼执政周期相互轮替,体现了拉美政治发展进程中左翼和右翼相互竞争、交替发展的历史性常态。尽管拉美左翼和右翼力量的社会基础、基本理念和政策倾向有明显差异,但两者既非绝对也非固定不变,其政治立场、政策主张、利益诉求、社会和群众基础随时代变迁而不断变化和调整,在一定条件下左翼和右翼甚至会相互接近。在拉美地区社会不平等和社会排斥现象非常严重的条件下,即使在右翼执政期内,左翼的主张也有很大号召力,左翼仍会有重要政治影响力;同样地,即使在左翼执政期间,右翼仍有制约左翼执政党的手段,可对政府决策施加重要影响。在多党竞争的环境下,无论左翼还是右翼,都会对自己以往执政的经验教训进行反思,修正过激政策,适当顾及对方诉求。从长远看,相对温和与实用的中间路线或许会成为拉美国家主要政治力量的方向性选择。本文从左右轮替的视角,结合21世纪以来两次左翼浪潮的发生,分析拉美政治发展的特点与规律。Since the beginning of the 21stcentury,there are two waves of left-wing rise in Latin America.The first wave began with Hugo Chavez,who was elected the president of Venezuela in 1998.Thereafter,the left-wing leaders gradually came into power in many other regional countries as well,which formed the so-called “pink tide” that lasted for 17-18 years.Since 2015,Latin American took a rightward turn,with the right-wing ideas playing a dominant role and the rightist parties coming into power in a number of regional countries.However,the shift toward the right only lasted for a relatively short period.Since 2020,leftist parties have regained power in this region.With Lula winning Brazil’ s presidential election in October 2022,the six most populous countries in the region are to be governed by left-wing parties at the same time.The competition between left and right parties and their alternation in power are not only the important results of the regional political development,but also an irreversible trend yielding double impact on the latter.This paper analyzes the characteristics and rules of Latin American political development from the perspective of left-right alternation in power,with the two leftwing tides in the 21st century in mind.

关 键 词：左右轮替 拉美政治发展 新左翼 中间路线 

分 类 号：D773[政治法律—政治学]