网络舆论的同音效应——基于选择螺旋和真基模拟的分析  

Monotonization through Selective Spiral: Evidence from Analysis of Big Content by People-Instructed Machine (ABC-PIM) and Simulation on Real Data (SORD)

作　　者：赵心树 敖颂 陆宏驰 邢季成 刘莉萍 王子君 廖圣清[3,4] 曾振华 於佩雯 ZHAO Xinshu;AO Song;LU Hongchi;XING Jicheng;LIU Liping;WANG Zijun;LIAO Shengqing;ZENG Zhenhua;YU Peiwen(Communication at University of Macao;Shenzhen Yucezhe Technology Limited;Journalism at Fudan University;School of Journalism at Yunnan University;Journalism and Communication at Jiangxi Normal University;Social Science Department at Jiangxi Normal University;Business at City University of Hong Kong)

机构地区：[1]澳门大学传播系 [2]深圳预测者科技有限公司 [3]复旦大学新闻学院 [4]云南大学新闻学院 [5]江西师范大学新闻与传播学院 [6]江西师范大学社会科学处 [7]香港城市大学商学院

出　　处：《国际新闻界》2022年第12期23-57,共35页Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication

基　　金：澳门大学(编号CRG2021-00002-ICI,ICI-RTO-0010-2021,CPG2021-00028-FSS&SRG2018-00143-FSS,赵心树主持);澳门特别行政区高等教育局(编号HSS-UMAC-2020-02,赵心树主持);江西师范大学新闻传播学院省“双千计划”(2018-08-10)。

摘　　要：本项研究报告一个此前未知的网络舆论现象:若无外来力量干涉或外来信息注入,且读者群体和转者群体的偏好维持稳定,则选择螺旋的数学本性使其趋向“同音”。即,经过选择发布、选择接收、选择转发、再接收、再转发,环生若干轮之后,接收和转发这两个群体之一所偏好的某类信息成为几乎唯一被转被读的信息,从而独霸特定信息场和舆论场,尽管另一群体和发布群体的偏好可能相异甚至相反于主导群体。本项研究分析的三个案例中,都是读者群体偏好的一类信息最终“霸场”,导致读者意愿主导的同音。发布群体和转发群体的偏好与读者群体的偏好相异甚至相反。发布群体偏好的内容甚至可能在螺旋早期占据信息场的大部空间。群体间的偏好相异或相反影响同音所需的螺旋轮数,从而影响同音速度,但未能改变读者群体主导、同音和霸场的趋向和结局。本项研究所依据的数据是2015年1月-2017年6月间近30个月中今日头条的帖文。在此期间,作者从该平台下载了全部可爬取的帖文标题与用户回应,从中选取了含有关键词“日本”的全部共47,224条标题和对应的5,237,308,573次点读数据及28,129,768次转发数据。经过“人指机大内容分析”,提取了三个情绪效价(sentiment valence)变量作为可能影响发布、点读和转发行为的选择因素。这三个效价变量分别测量标题内容对中国、对日本、或就事件性质而言的正负方向,形成本研究所基于的三个案例。This study found that,selective spiral,due to its mathematical nature,tends to monotonize,a phenomenon previously undocumented in academic literature.Through selective release,selective reception,selective relay,and some repetitions of the subsequent reception-relay recycle,a certain type of information preferred by receivers or relayers will dominate,monopolize,and eventually monotonize,i.e.,becoming virtually the only information relayed and read,even when the preferences of the other users differ or counter that of the dominant group.The data for the study came from nearly?ve million postings and the related user responses crawled in almost 30 months from January 2015 to June 2017,from www.toutiao.com,which constitute all crawlable content and behavior data from the platform during the time period.From the dataset all postings with the Chinese keyword“ri ben,”i.e.,Japan,were selected,giving us about 47,224 titles,5,237,308,573 clicks to read,and 28,129,768 clicks to relay,aka share or forward,for further analysis.The titles were content-analyzed following the procedure of Analysis of Big Content by People-Instructed Machine (ABC-PIM).Three valence variables were coded,valence from the standpoint of China,i.e.,positive,neutral,or negative for China,from the standpoint of Japan,or from the standpoint of journalism textbooks.The valence variables represented three selecting factors that may affect users’behavior of release,read,and relay,making three cases for this study.The direct observation of this study was on round zero,i.e.,the initial round,of communication spiral,according to the theory of selective spiral.Relay is the product of roundzero negation between releasers,receivers,and relayers,according to the theory of negotiated communication,derived from sociology of knowledge.Guided by the integrated theory of negotiated spiral,the study reports that,for each of the three cases,the releasers were found to be the most selective (sl=.79),thereby the most in?uential (ct=.82),in round zero.The readers,re

关 键 词：选择螺旋 同音化 信息协调 收者主导 信息内卷 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理] G206[社会学]