黄河流域未来极端气候事件变化趋势评估  

Assessment of Future Trends of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：王明玮 温跃修 严登华 荐圣淇[1] WANG Mingwei;WEN Yuexiu;YAN Denghua;JIAN Shengqi(Yellow River Laboratory,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学黄河实验室,河南郑州450001 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第2期33-37,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金面上项目(212300410413);河南省青年人才托举工程项目(2021HYTP030);水利部黄河泥沙重点实验室开放课题基金资助项目(HHNS201901);黄河实验室(郑州大学)一流课题专项基金资助项目(YRL22IR12)。

摘　　要：极端气候事件会对陆地生态系统服务功能以及人类社会生活造成严重影响。针对GFDL、FGOALS和CCSM4这3种CMIP5气候模式,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5未来情景下的黄河流域极端气候时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下流域日最高气温的上升速率分别为0.052、0.170、0.470℃/10 a,日最低气温的上升速率分别为0.029、0.170、0.460℃/10 a。日最高气温和日最低气温的空间分布规律呈现出一致性,从黄河上游河源区向中下游呈上升趋势。未来情景下黄河流域整体年降水量呈弱增加趋势,到21世纪后期,高温室气体排放情景下年降水量的增幅变大。Extreme climate events will have a serious impact on terrestrial ecosystem services and human social life. Based on the three CMIP5 climate models, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme climate in the Yellow River Basin under the future scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were studied. The results show that under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the rising rates of daily maximum temperature in the watershed are 0.052 ℃/10 a, 0.170 ℃/10 a and 0.470 ℃/10 a, respectively, and the rising rates of daily minimum temperature are 0.029 ℃/10 a, 0.170 ℃/10 a and 0.460 ℃/10 a, respectively. The spatial distribution law of the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature is consistent, showing an upward trend from the headwaters of the upper Yellow River to the middle and lower reaches. The overall annual precipitation of the Yellow River Basin under the future scenario shows a weak increase trend. By the end of the 21st century, the increase of annual precipitation under the high emission scenario will become larger.

关 键 词：极端气候事件 CMIP5气候模式 RCP情景 气候预估 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV882.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]