绵阳市老年人慢性病共病现状及关联规则分析  

Prevalence and correlation rules among the elderly with multimorbidity in Mianyang City

作　　者：刘秀秀 郭洪菊[2] 余雨珂 陈梓萱 王琴 刘嘉琳 袁萍[1] LIU Xiu-xiu;GUO Hong-ju;YU Yu-ke;CHEN Zi-xuan;WAN Qin;LIUJia-lin;YUAN Ping(West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China;Institute for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control,Mianyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Mianyang 621000,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院/四川大学华西第四医院,成都610041 [2]绵阳市疾病预防控制中心慢性病预防控制所,四川绵阳621000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2023年第1期52-59,共8页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：“十三五”国家重大科技专项(项目编号:2018X10715003)。

摘　　要：目的了解绵阳市60岁及以上老年人慢性非传染性疾病(慢性病)的共病流行情况,为老年人共病防控提供参考依据。方法对2018年3月—2019年4月期间参与“十三五”国家科技重大专项“四川省绵阳市乙肝与结核病综合防治示范区规模化现场队列研究”示范点筛查的107177名60岁及以上常住居民进行问卷调查和体格检查,收集个人基本资料、生活方式、身高、体重、血压和血糖等资料,采用描述流行病学方法分析慢性病共病现状,并应用Apriori算法分析慢性病关联强度。结果绵阳市60岁以上老年人中,患两种及以上慢性病者14509人,共病患病率为13.54%。Apriori算法结果显示,本次调查的7种慢性病间存在关联规则,多指向高血压和慢性支气管炎。全人群筛选出5条强关联规则,按置信度排序分别是{COPD}→{慢性支气管炎}、{糖尿病,脂肪肝}→{高血压}、{脂肪肝}→{高血压}、{糖尿病}→{高血压}和{冠心病}→{高血压};男性筛选出2条强关联规则,女性筛选出5条强关联规则,与全人群结果类似;除上述关联规则外,在75~79岁年龄组和≥80岁年龄组发现关联规则{COPD,高血压}→{慢性支气管炎},≥80岁年龄组发现关联{冠心病,慢性支气管炎}→{高血压}。结论绵阳市老年人约半数至少患有1种慢性病(54.46%),慢性病共病的患病率处于低水平(13.54%)。高血压、糖尿病和慢性支气管炎存在于多种共病关联规则中,应针对疾病共享危险因素进行健康干预,减少慢性病共病发生率。Objective To understand the prevalence of multimorbidity of chronic noncommunicable diseases(chronic diseases)among the elderly aged 60 and above in Mianyang City,and to provide reference for the prevention and control of multimorbidity in the elderly.Methods A total of 107177permanent residents aged 60 and above who participated in the screening of the demonstration site of“Large-scale Field Cohort Study on Integrated Prevention and Control of Hepatitis B and Tuberculosis in Mianyang City,Sichuan Province”,a major national science and technology project during the 13th Five-Year Plan period from March 2018 to April 2019 were surveyed by a questionnaire and physical examinations.Data about personal basic information,lifestyle,height,weight,blood pressure,blood sugar and other information were collected.The descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the status of the multimorbidity of chronic diseases.The correlation intensity of chronic diseases was analyzed by Apriori Modeling algorithm.Results A total of 14509 people over 60years old suffered from two or more chronic diseases in Mianyang City,and the multimorbidity prevalence rate was 13.54%.The results of Apriori algorithm showed that there were correlation rules among the seven chronic diseases studied in this survey,mostly pointing to hypertension and chronic bronchitis.Five strong correlation rules were screened out from the whole population,which were in the order of confidence:“COPD”to“chronic bronchitis”,“diabetes,fatty liver”to“hypertension”,“fatty liver”to“hypertension”,“diabetes”to“hypertension”and“coronary heart disease”to“hypertension”.Two strong correlation rules were screened out for males,and five strong correlation rules were screened out for females,which were similar to the results of the whole population.In addition to the above association rules,the correlation rule of“COPD,hypertension”to“chronic bronchitis”was found in the 75~79 years old age group and the≥80years old age

关 键 词：共病 老年人 关联规则 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]