Exploring detailed urban-rural development under intersecting population growth and food production scenarios: Trajectories for China’s most populous agricultural province to 2030  

作　　者：GAO Peichao XIE Yiru SONG Changqing CHENG Changxiu YE Sijing 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [2]Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [3]Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [4]National Tibetan Plateau Data Center,Beijing 100101,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2023年第2期222-244,共23页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA23100303;National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42271418,No.42171250,No.42230106;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,No.2022-ZD-04。

摘　　要：Henan,China,is likely the most populous agricultural province worldwide.It is China’s major grain-producing area,with a continuously increasing population(96 million),which is greater than 93%of countries worldwide.However,this province has been experiencing unprecedented urbanization recently due to national policies and measures,such as a plan to build the capital city of Henan into a national center,resulting in severe conflicts in land use that endanger food security regionally and globally.To facilitate decision-making on this problem,we explored the detailed urban-rural development of Henan by modeling these land-use conflicts.Conventional modeling of a region’s urban-rural development is to navigate trade-offs(a)solely between different land-use types(b)by assuming that each type provides a single service(e.g.,croplands produce all the food),and(c)under a polynomial regression-based projection of population.In contrast,we considered both land-use type and intensity,resulting in a detailed land system for Henan.By introducing the concept of land system services(e.g.,food production),we established a many-to-many relationship between land system classes and services.These allowed us to carry out the most comprehensive modeling of Henan’s urban-rural development under eighteen combined scenarios of population growth and land-use policies on food production.The modeling results of these scenarios provide a solid basis for making decisions regarding Henan’s urban-rural development.We also revealed the influence mechanism of population growth,land-use policies,and their combinations,highlighting the benefits of securing food production by agricultural intensification rather than merely expanding the area of cropland.

关 键 词：urban-rural development population growth food production CLUMondo 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]