基于非线性动力系统的生猪价格和CPI动态演化分析  

Dynamic Evolution of Hog Price and CPI Based on the Nonlinear Dynamic System

作　　者：付莲莲 熊小红 何宁 FU Lian-lian;XIONG Xiao-hong;HE Ning(School of Computer and Information Engineering,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学计算机与信息工程学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《系统工程》2023年第1期46-55,共10页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71963019);国家社科基金资助项目(21XGL007);国家留学基金委公派访问学者面上项目(CSC202008360074)。

摘　　要：我国生猪价格和居民消费价格指数之间存在复杂的非线性动态关系。基于2000年1月至2020年9月的数据,构建生猪价格和CPI的PP-CPINLDS非线性动力学模型,借助于雅各比矩阵、图形解及相图分析动力系统并判断系统的稳定性和敏感性。研究得出:PP-CPINLDS系统为平面自治非线性动力学模型,生猪价格对CPI增长具有加速促进作用,但两者之间存在竞争关系;生猪价格呈现增长趋势,增长速度先快后慢,会出现增长极限;系统具有稳定性,存在最优均衡点;CPI具有自我约束、自我调控的能力和稳定趋势,对系统施与不同新息的冲击,生猪价格对CPI影响较大,PP-CPINLDS系统对来自于生猪价格的冲击更为敏感。There is a complex dynamic relationship between pig price and CPI in China.Based on the data from January 2000 to September 2020,this paper constructs a PP-CPINLDS nonlinear dynamic model of hog price and CPI.With the help of Jacobi,graph solution and phase diagram,the system is analyzed to judge the stability and sensitivity.The results are as follows:PP-CPINLD system is a plane autonomous nonlinear dynamic model.Hog price can accelerate the growth of CPI,but there is a competitive relationship between them.Hog price shows an increasing trend,and the growth rate is fast at first and then slow.It has the ability to accelerate and restrain,and there is a growth limit and equilibrium.CPI has the ability of self-restraint,self-regulation and stable trend;PP-CPINLDS model has stability and optimal equilibrium point to the impact of different innovation on the system;In contrast,pig price has a greater impact on CPI and PP-CPINLD system is more sensitive to the impulse of hog price.

关 键 词：生猪价格 CPI PP-CPINLDS 非线性动力系统 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]