农业技术效率对农业碳排放的影响——基于空间溢出效应与门槛效应分析  

Effects of agricultural technical efficiency on agricultural carbon emission:Based on spatial spillover effect and threshold effect analysis

作　　者：颜光耀 陈卫洪[1,2] 钱海慧 YAN Guangyao;CHEN Weihong;QIAN Haihui(School of Economics,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550000,China;Guizhou Danxueshan Permaculture Development Co.LTD,Changshun 550700,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学经济学院,贵阳550000 [2]贵州省丹穴山朴门永续发展有限公司,长顺550700

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2023年第2期226-240,共15页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：教育部新农科研究与改革实践项目“面向新农科的实践教育体系构建”;贵州省科技平台及人才团队计划项目(黔科合平台人才[2017]5647);贵州大学人文社科研究一般项目(GDYB2021005)资助。

摘　　要：农业技术是促进农业产业发展的根本力量,探究其对农业碳排放的影响机制,对实现我国“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文基于2001—2020年我国31个省、直辖市和自治区(港澳台地区以外)的面板数据,使用随机前沿模型对农业技术效率进行测算,并对各地区农业碳排放总量与强度进行核算,构建空间杜宾模型和以农业技术效率为门槛变量的门槛模型,探究农业技术效率和农业碳排放的空间效应与非线性关系。结果表明:全国农业碳排放总量与强度近年来呈下降趋势。中部地区农业碳排放总量高于东西部地区,东部地区农业技术效率高于中西部地区,而农业碳排放强度则低于中西部地区。农业碳排放强度与农业技术效率具有空间自相关性,并表现为集聚特征,集聚类型以高高聚聚和低低聚集为主。农业碳排放强度具有正向空间溢出效应,而农业技术效率对农业碳排放强度则表现为负向空间溢出,此外城镇化、人力资本水平和人均耕地面积对农业碳排放强度具有负向影响,农业经济发展水平和农业受灾程度为正向影响。农业技术效率与农业碳排放强度存在双门槛效应,当农业技术效率达到“拐点”后,其对农业碳排放强度的影响转变为负向,当进一步提升农业技术效率水平后,其影响力会因边际效应递减而减弱。本研究为探索实现“双碳”目标的路径提供理论基础与政策依据。Global warming,caused by the greenhouse effect,has triggered numerous unprecedented extreme weather events globally.Agricultural technology is the fundamental force that promotes the development of the agricultural industry.Studying the impact mechanism of agricultural technology on agricultural carbon emissions will help transform traditional agriculture into ecological,green,and low-carbon modern agriculture,and it is of great significance to the realization of carbon neutrality and carbon peaks.This study used panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2001 to 2020.First,the stochastic frontier model was used to extend existing research from a broad and narrow sense of agricultural technical progress to agricultural technical efficiency.The total agricultural carbon emissions and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions were then calculated and compared.Finally,we constructed the spatial Dubin model and the threshold model with agricultural technical efficiency as the threshold variable,which revealed the spatial effect and non-linear relationship between agricultural technical efficiency and agricultural carbon emissions.The results showed that the total and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions had decreased in recent years.Central China had more agricultural carbon emissions than eastern and western China,and eastern China had a higher technical efficiency of agriculture and a lower carbon emission intensity of agriculture than central and western China.Agricultural carbon emission intensity and technical efficiency had spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration characteristics,and high-high clustering and low-low clustering are the main factors among the provinces.Agricultural carbon emission intensity had a positive spatial spillover effect on itself,but agricultural technical efficiency had a negative spatial spillover effect,which was conducive to the overall reduction of agricultural carbon emissions.Additionally,urbanization,human capital level,and per capita cultivated land area also

关 键 词：种植业 农业技术效率 农业碳排放 空间溢出效应 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]